The Nonlinear Effects Of Policy Uncertainty On Firm Investment

At present,China's economy has entered a new period(?)ansition from high growth to medium speed.On the one hand,from a global persF ive.since the 2008 international financial crisis,the world economy has been the(?)th of the transition period from the rapid development period.On the other han(?)from the internal environment,growth rate gets into the shift and structural a(?)stment faced with pains.And China's economy in the future for a long period will(?)e more economic policy uncertainty.Therefore,this paper takes the uncerta(?)y of government economic policy as the starting point and uses panel data of 472 isted companies in China's manufacturing industry from 2004 to 2014 to research on now this particular uncertainty affects corporate investment.Be different from the domestic existing research,this paper uses China's economic policy uncertainty index to measure the uncertainty of China's economic policy.The main results obtained are as follows:Using the fixed effect model,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the investment of Chinese enterprises is analyzed.The results of the study showed that influence enterprise economic policy uncertainty on the investment of our country exists nonlinear relationship,and reversed U type,when the policy uncertainty is small,with the increase of policy uncertainty,enterprise investment increases;and when the policy uncertainty is large,with the increase of uncertainty,enterprise investment reduced.Due to the fixed effect model can not solve the problem of the existence of endogenous,so this paper also applies a variety of different methods to carry out further robustness test.The results obtained are consistent with the previous conclusions,which shows that the empirical results of this paper have strong robustness.And we continued using threshold panel model to examine whether the policy uncertainty has an asymmetric effect on the investment of enterprises.Study found that economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment do exist the characteristics of the threshold,when the policy uncertainty is less than the threshold value,policy uncertainty for investment companies with positive incentives,namely with increase of(?)certainty,the enterprise's investment will be a corresponding increase;and whe:the policy uncertainty is greater than the threshold value,policy uncertainty for th(?)investment company has inhibitory effect,namely with increase of uncertainty,e(?)terprises will corresponding reduce investment.This further verifies that the e(?)nomic policy uncertainty has nonlinear effects on the investment of enterprises,and the conclusion of an inverted U-shaped relationship exists.