Uncertainty In Economic Policy And Inverstment In Enterprises:A Comparatives Study Of Real Estate And Manufacturing

Enterprise investment is an important part of social and economic development,so the study of the influencing factors of investment has always been the focus of academic attention.During the financial crisis,countries in order to prevent their own economic recession,adopted a series of positive measures to strengthen the economic intervention,economic policy fluctuations continue to intensify.However,the government introduced a series of economic stimulus policies,while promoting a stable landing of the economy at the same time,micro-enterprise investment also had a tremendous impact.At the same time,the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different enterprises is different,the existing research that economic policy uncertainty for business investment mainly through financing constraints,bank preferences and resource allocation,etc.,but from the industry point of view,heterogeneous industry Financing constraints,bank preference and resource allocation efficiency are different,especially in the real estate and manufacturing industry is the most prominent,and this industry differences in economic policy under the influence of uncertainty with the effect of accelerator.Therefore,the focus of this paper is to study the economic policy uncertainty for the heterogeneous industry,whether there are differences,and how the two industries have an impact.This paper first introduces the research background and research significance,describes the status quo of economic policy uncertainty on the impact of enterprise investment,focusing on the real estate and manufacturing industry affected by the uncertainty of the heterogeneous mechanism,and to explain:real estate and manufacturing The difference between the investment threshold,the investment recovery period,the payment method and the risk transfer,the bank and the government preference make the two different influence in the face of the economic policy uncertainty.Based on the data of listed companies in 2001 and 2015,this paper uses the dynamic non-equilibrium panel model to set up the panel regression model by using the enterprise investment as the explanatory variable,taking the economic policy uncertainty index and the real estate policy uncertainty index as the explanatory variable.Data-driven approach to identify the impact of uncertainty on corporate investment and the differences in different industries.The main study found the following:Firstly,economic policy uncertainty has risen rapidly in recent years.The recent sharp rise in uncertainty in economic policy was due to the fall in the stock market in 2015,and the large amount of capital evaporation led to increased uncertainty in the development of government economic policies.In general,the government's economic policy is greatly influenced by the macroeconomic impact of domestic and international,that is,economic policy uncertainty is significantly improved during the recession.Secondly,economic policy uncertainty has had a different impact on real estate and manufacturing.Economic policy has a positive effect on the real estate industry to take the investment,but the investment in the manufacturing sector has a negative effect,real estate due to its low technical threshold,higher return on investment and higher banking and government preferences and other characteristics,Which is more susceptible to capital preference in the context of uncertainty,and manufacturing industry relative to the real estate business,in the face of uncertainty,due to long investment recovery period,the risk income ratio is low,financing constraints,etc.,tend to produce negative To influence.Finally,this paper constructs the real estate policy uncertainty index based on the economic policy uncertainty index of the University of Chicago.The empirical results show that the real estate policy uncertainty has positive effect on the real estate industry itself,but has negative influence on the investment in the manufacturing industry.In the face of the impact of uncertainty,the capital will be more inclined to enter the real estate industry,and for the manufacturing enterprises to produce extrusion effect.Compared with the existing literature,the main contributions of this paper in the following areas:Firstly,the uncertainty index of real estate policy is constructed by referring to the Uncertainty Index of Economic Policy of Chicago University as the test index of real estate policy uncertainty in China.Empirical test of real estate policy uncertainty in the context of whether the real estate industry investment for the manufacturing industry have a crowding effect.Secondly,the impact of the existing literature on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and enterprise investment is mainly focused on qualitative point of view,and the mechanism of impact on specific industries is rarely studied.This paper focuses on the uncertainty of economic policy and the mechanism of enterprise investment And then from the perspecti-ve of industry heterogeneity cut,on the basis of further analysis of economic policy uncertainty on the heterogeneity of the impact of the existence of enterprises,rich economic policy uncertainty for the impact of corporate investment.