| With the rapid development of economy of our country in recent years,our infrastructure is improving continually.However,the improvement of people's material life makes greater demands on the quantity and quality of infrastructure.In addition,the price of labour?raw material and other products has risen significantly compared to the past during the transition period of our economy,and the growth of fiscal revenue cannot reach the level of past because of the lower growth rate of economy.All these factors lead to the fact that the construction of infrastructure in our country is confronted with more severe funding gap than the past.Therefore,our country is actively encouraging cooperation between government and private capital and innovating the mode of investing and financing so that the double-win situation can be realized that the funding gap in construction of infrastructure can be solved and the private capital can achieve reasonable return from investment of infrastructure.The way of cooperation between government and private capital in the past is the BOT mode,but the construction risk and operational risk in the future contained in the BOT mode make this mode unsuitable for infrastructure with high uncertainty,hence this mode cannot provide funding support for many present construction of infrastructure.However,the TOT mode based on BOT mode is able to solve the capital insufficiency on construction of infrastructure perfectly.In the past several decades our government has spent mounts of financial funds on infrastructure construction,now our country have possessed massive infrastructure projects controlled by the government.There are many projects which have stable cash inflow and steady growth trend in the projects mentioned above.By providing the franchise rights of these projects to the private capital,not only can the lack of attraction of infrastructure investment be solved,which makes the capital insufficiency on infrastructure construction disappear,but also a new investment path has been opened up for private capital which will steer capital from the virtual economy to the real economy and promote the healthy and benign development of economy.Although the shortage of appeal on infrastructure investment to private capital could be solved by TOT mode,this mode is also confronted with other problems such as the concession duration,legal permit and property protection.Among these problems,the first one is how to determine a proper concession duration,which will solve the capital insufficiency without loss of state-own assets and provide reasonable return for private capital without overburdening the public.For this reason,the concession duration is a direct factor which will touch the interest of both sides,and the research on concession duration will present essential value in theory and realistic significance.Now the main ways of determining concession duration inlude NPV method?ROI method?Game Theory method and Real Option method,and the one which has been highly used in practice is NPV method.Although NPV method has certain limitations in evaluating BOT projects with high uncertainty,it is very suitable for TOT projects.Because it is not necessary for TOT projects to use the data from other projects for reference,and TOT projects has been operated for several years with stable cash inflow,which means all kinds of risks have disappeared or been reduced dramatically and uncertainty has become low relatively.But in the past NPV method used to measure the acceptable shortest concession duration from the perspective of private capital,it neglects the longest concession duration which could be accepted by the government,and just determines the longest concession according to the law.This paper,based on the previous study,creatively uses NPV method in the decision-making process of both the government and the private capital,and has taken the difference of risk and operational efficiency in preliminary construction and operation by the government into consideration so that differentiated lowest expected return rate and operational cost have been set up.By adopting system dynamics model in the decision-making process of both sides,using NPV method could achieve maximum duration accepted by the government and and minimum duration accepted by the private capital,which will obtain a time range accepted by both sides to provide objective and rigorous basis for the concession duration finally determined.This paper is divided into five parts:Part ?,introduction.This part mainly introduces the research background and significance of this paper,defines and explains the concept of TOT mode,concession duration and system dynamics.It also summarizes the current state of research on TOT mode and the direction of research on concession duration at home and abroad before sums up the frame?innovation and shortage of this paper.Part ?,relevant theory.This part mainly introduces several theories on the prime decision methods of TOT mode in practice,modeling principle of system dynamics and the general steps on solving problems.Part ?,building concession duration model of TOT highway project based on system dynamics.This part introduces the basic principal of building concession duration model of TOT highway project,explains the process of building model based on this principal by system dynamics,and makes assessment of this model.Part ?,case analysis on the concession duration model of TOT highway project.This part takes the Guang Fo highway as an example and imitates offering franchise right to private capital according to the real historical data of Guang Fo highway.Then the time range of concession duration accepted by both sides can be achieved by inputting the historical data into the system dynamics model.Part ?,conclusion and policy advice.This part summarizes the conclusion of this paper,and puts forward several policy advices on several aspects including the improvement of relative information and data?the improvenment of concerned laws and protection of private capital rights. |
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