The Research On The Influence Of Housing Factors On The Consumption Of Urban Residents In Liaoning Province

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998,China's real estate market has experienced more than ten years of rapid development,the scale of real estate have been expanding,it has become an important driving force for stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth.But recently,the situation of real estate market of Liaoning Province is getting more and more severe,many of the real estate construction projects have been started in a stagnant state.The real estate market digest inventory slowly,there are regional and structural surplus.The trend of Liaoning's economic growth has continued to slow down,the downward pressure is increasing,significant demand is insufficient,and investment growth is difficult to continue.Therefore,it is necessary for us to find out the impact of housing factors on the economy of Liaoning.This paper refers to the domestic and foreign scholar's research methods and ideas,combines with the actual situation of the real estate market in Liaoning Province,and takes a combination of theoretical and empirical method,to discuss the intrinsic link between housing factors and consumption expenditure of urban residents under the perspective of wealth effect and position seeking theory.Most of the domestic scholars' research results on the real estate wealth effect are obtained through empirical analysis,the theoretical derivation is insufficient.The research object is usually the real estate wealth effect of national level or a few key cities,research rarely on specific areas' real estate wealth effect.Moreover,many scholars on housing research is limited to the wealth effect,ignoring another important characteristic:to a certain extent,the housing represents the family's social status.The paper combines with life-cycle persistent-income model(LC-PIH)and status seeking model to derive consumption theory model,carries out an empirical study on the urban residents' consumption in Liaoning Province,and analysis the characteristics of consumer behavior under the influence of real estate wealth effect and status seeking motivation.Based on the panel data of 14 prefecture level cities in Liaoning Province from 1992 to 2014,this paper analyzes the influence of the price fluctuation and the housing consumption area of Liaoning Province on the consumption and consumption structure of urban residents.In order to strictly distinguish the impact of housing factors on living consumption and non-living consumption,the dynamic panel models of non-living consumption and living consumption were established respectively.And in order to further analyze the impact of housing on the consumption of residents,the paper builds a fixed effect model of the consumption structure based on the theory of consumption model.Therefore this paper has done two aspects' empirical analysis:On one hand,based on the perspective of wealth effect and status seeking,this paper analyzes the influence of housing on the consumption of urban residents in Liaoning Province,and uses the two-step System GMM method to get the empirical results,The results show that there was a negative wealth effect on the current non-living consumption and living consumption,but the former is significant at the 1%level,while the latter was significant at 10%level.When house prices rise by 1%.non-living consumption will reduce by 0.053%,and living consumption will reduce by 0.256%;The influence coefficients of consumption habits and disposable income on living consumption and non-living consumption are positive.and are significant at 1%level.The other hand,based on the consumption model,the paper establishes Engel coefficient model,in order to analyze whether the housing factors will affect the consumption structure of urban residents in Liaoning Province.The empirical results show that the regression coefficient of prices on Engel's coefficient is negative,the regression coefficient of per capita housing consumption on Engel's coefficient is positive,but both are not significant;Disposable income and savings has significant effect on the Engel coefficient.With the increase in disposable income and savings,the Engel coefficient is significantly reduced at the 1%level,which illustrates the more realistic wealth indexes(like disposable income and savings)really will let people feel rich.Finally,the paper summarizes the main empirical findings,analyzes the constraints of the wealth effect of real estate market in Liaoning and the influencing factors of housing consumption area as a status seeking motivation to inhibit non-status consumption,put forward the real estate market relevant policies and suggestions of stimulating consumption and stabilizing the province's economic growth.This study has the following main innovations:first,based on the life-cycle permanent-income model(LC-PIH)model and status seeking model to derive the consumption theory model,and analysis the characteristics of consumer behavior under the influence of real estate wealth effect and status seeking motivation.Not only to improve the consumption theory,but also to open up a new perspective for the empirical study of the impact of housing on the consumption:put housing as a representative of t positional goods to clarify the impact of Status seeking on the consumption of urban residents,Second,this paper strictly distinguish the impact of housing factors on living consumption and non-living consumption,the dynamic panel models of non-living consumption and living consumption were established respectively.Third,the difference of economic development between different provinces,this study mainly researches in the regional real estate wealth effect and status seeking in Liaoning Province,Not only to provide a certain reference for the government regulation to control of the property market in Liaoning Province,but it also has a certain reference value to solve the problem of regional economic development in other provinces.This study has the following main shortcomings:first,due to the lack of some prefecture-level cities' data,this paper did not fully consider the difference between different age groups and different income groups of urban residents,solving this problem will make the conclusion more convincing.Second,the variables about financial assets only select savings assets,if the stock of assets,resident bond holdings and other household assets also be included in the analysis and comparison,will make the results more accurate,but these data are not readily available in Prefecture level cities.