Analysis Of The Impact Of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Macro Economy

China's reform and opening up has been carried out for more than thirty years,foreign trade openness is increasing,the total economy ranked second in the world,China's contribution to the global economy more and more,its international influence is also further enhanced.Effects of volatility and exchange rate fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate on the macro economy has become a hot research topic in the field of international finance,RMB the exchange rate has become a core economic variables of concern at home and abroad.Since July 21,2005,since China started the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,China began to implement based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies,a managed floating exchange rate system,during which the exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S.dollar has remained small,steady,gradual appreciation process.In the current global economic recovery and China's economy is facing downward pressure in the background,2015 The three quarter,a substantial devaluation of the RMB exchange rate on the foreign exchange market,causing a collapse in global stock and commodity prices,resulting in a two-way RMB exchange rate fluctuations to expand,enhancing exchange rate flexibility.Two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will inevitably affect the macro economy of our country.Therefore,it is necessary to study the influencing factors of exchange rate fluctuations study on the fluctuation of exchange rate,and what will be the impact on China's economy,and the degree of influence is very important.In this paper,economics theory and econometric method based on macroeconomic data in January 1997 to December 2015,the main analysis of the RMB exchange rate on China's macroeconomic variables conduction mechanism and effect,using the EGARCH model to measure the RMB real effective exchange rate volatility,constructed the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the exchange rate volatility,in the open economy under the import and export,domestic output,fixed asset investment,foreign direct investment,terms of trade,openness,consumption,price level,money supply,interest rate,foreign exchange reserves.fiscal expenditure,small monthly macroeconomic simultaneous equations model of international commodity prices and other variables of the model are estimated by the three stage the least squares method,measure the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuation on China's economy.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)the real effective exchange rate of the RMB does not appear excessive volatility in the three quarter of 2015,the fluctuation is within the range of tolerance;(2)real effective exchange rate of RMB two-way fluctuation increase will inhibit the import and export of our country;(3)the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation of the impact on China's import and export trade to meet the Marshall Lerner condition;(4)the real effective exchange rate of RMB appreciation will reduce China's inflation pressure;(5)the impact of international commodity price fluctuations on China's macro economy is significant.Finally,the innovation of this paper lies in:(1)analysis of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on the macroeconomic conduction mechanism and effect,established the EGARCH model of exchange rate volatility,estimated by the EGARCH model,to measure the real effective exchange rate volatility.(2)the volatility of exchange rate and real effective the exchange rate to the simultaneous equations model,the establishment of a macro-economic monthly simultaneous equation model group under the open economy condition,can better measure RMB exchange rate fluctuation on China's macroeconomic impact.(3)dummy variables into structural changes.The asymmetric effect before and after the exchange rate reform and study the impact of the financial crisis on China's macro economy produced.In the simultaneous equations model,using two dummy variables are considered international commodity prices on export,the asymmetric effects of monetary supply to the price level.(4)considering the effects of foreign factors on China's macro economy,selection of international commodity price index said international commodity prices,analysis of commodity price changes on China's international trade and the domestic price level,can more fully understand the impact of price fluctuations in the economy of our country.