The Effects Of Monetary Policy On The Housing Market

As one of the supporting enterprises of our national economy,real industry has taken a significant character in the development of the economy.To maintain progress of real estate in a stable and health manner is not only a economic problem,but also a social problem concerning more about people's lilvelihood.In the background of our national economy entering a new normal status,how to utilize the real industry to help economic recovery in one hand,and to avoid the house price from riring sharping is an issue that need to be solved urgently.Based on the previous regulations,the property markets in different districts reacted in a diversified way under a unified monetary.This offered the possibility that the uniform monetary policy may have different results in disparate zones.Based on this phenomenon,this paper tried to take an analysis of the effect of monetary policy on real estate industry in a regional perspective,seeking the difference of policy implementing effect in different regions.Specifically speaking,this paper chose the 130-month data of the real esate in the 30 provinces of China,the money supply and the one-to-three-year loan rate from January 2005 to October 2015,dividing the 30 provinces into three districts on behalf of the economic development level.The paper tried to build a VAR mode,utilizing the co-integration analysis,the impulse response function and the regression analysis to analyze the influence of money supply and loan rate on the demand and supply of the property market.The research found that:generally speaking,the effect of the money supply on the real estate was bigger than that of the interest rate regulation.From the perspective of demand and supply,we could find that firstly,in the respect of real industry supply,the interest rate regulation only have had a relatively strong effect on the fulfilled amount of investment in property.The increase in loan rate couldn't play an inhibiting effect of the the fulfilled amount of investment in property in a long term,but promoted it on the contrary,which would be more significant in the central and western areas.The interest rate had no significant effects on other indicators of the real estate supply under a 5%significance level;from the repulse response function,the effect of the interest rate on the real estate supply was faint,and had no persistence;In the respect of real estate demand,the increase in interest rate could restrain the augment in real estate demand,and the eastern district suffered more inhibitory effect;secondly,from the co-integration analysis and the repulse respond function,the increase in money supply offered a prominenpromotion both to the real estate supply and the demand,and the central and western parts got more facilitation from the money supply.According to the empirical analysis,we should utilize the quantitiative instruments rather than the price instruments.When the policies are implemented,they should be put into effect based on certain economic backgrounds,adjusting measures to local conditions.Meanwhile,it should be strengthened in the development of diversified financial markets to ease the pressure of the property market as one of the few investment channels.