Identification And Analysis Of Key Factors Affecting Overloading Of Highway Transportation

With the rapid development of highway transportation in China,the problem of highway overload is becoming more and more serious,which has been widely concerned by the whole society.Overloading transportation not only destroys the road network,accelerates the ground damage,causes the traffic accident,but also disturbs the order of the transportation market.At present,both at home and abroad for overload research mainly focused on analyzing the cause of the overload and administration measures,but not from the perspective of special highway traffic survey data,study of factors affecting highway transportation overloading and the impact of quantitative analysis.In order to provide theoretical basis for inspecting and managing overloading through identifying the factors of freight vehicle overloading and passenger transport overloading,basic information of vehicles,their energy consumption,transportation information were collected based the statistical investigation on highway transportation of Anhui in 2015.Firstly,introduce the highway transportation quantity survey scheme and based on their basic information,energy consumption and transportation information,this paper analyzes the current situation and basic characteristics of Anhui road freight and passenger transport market from the aspects of transportation production,regional distribution of freight volume,freight structure and freight flow direction,then,since traditional binary Logistic model is difficult to solve problems of high order interactions and discretization of continuous variables,the binary Logistic and CART were employed comprehensively to identify key factors of freight vehicle overloading,and puts forward the Countermeasures.Finally,the single factor significance test,collinearity diagnostics and binary logistic regression analysis were employed comprehensively to identify the factors of passenger transport overloading,which in turn provide basis for feasible countermeasures of overloading.It was indicated that the influence of overloading factors of freight vehicle were the transportation type,mark tonnage,management mode,the freight volume for 10 days,the interaction of the freight volume for 10 days/mark tonnage,the average transportation distance for 10 days/mark tonnage and some interactions,in addition,AUC of the integrated model increased 0.05 compared with the traditional binary Logistic model and the difference was statistically significant,the influence of overloading factors of passenger transport were class mark and passenger volume for 10 days.