Causes And Countermeasures For China’s Export Growth Slowing Down Since The "Eleventh Five-Year"

Since 2002,the demographic dividend and the globalization dividend have promoted the rapid development of China’s export and rapid economic growth.However,the increasing scale of exports has been lack of stamina.Since 2004,export growth has been in a slowing trend.The demographic dividend and the globalization dividend accelerate the decline,hinder the improvement of China’s export competitiveness,China’s economy is shifting from in high-speed growth to in medium-to-high-speed growth.Healthy and steady export is gradually replacing the rapid export,as a new normal state under the new economy.This paper attempts to analyze the reasons that affect the export growth,which helps to understand and grasp the characteristics of China’s export growth more fully.It also helps to provide reference recommendations for a smooth transition to the new export normalization with further improved export trade policy.After a descriptive analysis of export growth,this paper analyzes the reasons for the slowdown of China’s export growth with qualitative analysis and empirical regression.It was found that China’s export growth was influenced by factors such as China’s economic growth,income level of importing countries,commodity prices,exchange rates,trade policies and international capital flows.The factor of economic growth,foreign direct investment and foreign direct investment have a positive effect on export growth.Commodity price factor,exchange rate factor and trade policy factor have reverse effect on export growth.And most importantly,the negative effects of the gradual slowdown in export growth were worsening,which needs to be improved.Finally,based on the analysis results,combined with economic trends and policy environment,this paper gives countermeasures and suggestions.At the national level,it is proposed to promote market diversification,promote changes in export quality,maintain exchange rate stability,ease trade friction and optimize investment environment.At the enterprise level,it is suggested to keep pace with the market,strengthen risk warning,increase investment in technology and expand foreign investment.In process industry-level support and cooperation are also necessary.Give full play to the role of industry associations.