Research On The Impact Of Of Exchange Rate On Economic Long And Short Period Growth In The Process Of RMB Internationalization

With the acceleration of the process of internationalization of the RMB in China.the RMB has played a role in the international currency within a certain range and gradually rises its international status,the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will have a more and more important influence on every aspect of our economy.Therefore,In depth study of the mechanism and effect of exchange rate changes on economic growth in the process of internationalization of the RMB,not only helps to understand the relationship between the exchange rate and the long-term Chinese macroeconomic growth,but also effectively guard against exchange rate risk,ensure the stability of the RMB currency and avoid excessive imbalances of the international balance of payments,helps to build a virtuous circle mechanism to promote the steady development of RMB internationalization from the macro level.First of all,based on the internationalization of the RMB to join SDR has taken substantive steps of RMB internationalization,under the background of the times,we reviews the research status both at home and abroad,and analysis the exchange rate changes on the characteristics of the internationalization of China's RMB and RMB internationalization in the process;Secondly,we theoretical analysis the impact of exchange rate changes on China's macroeconomic mechanism,we choose the actual GDP as the research index of macro economy,and theoretically analyze the impact of exchange rate on foreign direct investment,import and export trade,and the introduction of exchange rate changes through foreign direct investment,import and export effect on economic growth in the short and long term mechanism;Thirdly,on the basis of the analysis of the trend of RMB exchange rate in the process of internationalization of RMB,this paper studies the interaction between exchange rate fluctuation,foreign direct investment,import and export and economic growth through vector auto-regression model;Finally,according to the empirical research results and the previous studies,combined with the background of the internationalization of RMB,we put forward the corresponding policy for China's exchange rate reform.The research shows that:(1)The change of exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization has the trend of long-term appreciation.In the short term,he short-term RMB exchange rate volatility appears alternately rising and falling.At present,RMB has a certain degree of depreciation;(2)In the process of internationalization of the RMB,exchange rate appreciation and import and export trade has a significant negative correlation,but the impact of the RMB appreciation on the import of the time is shorter than the export,therefore,in the long term,the appreciation of the RMB may cause a decline in net exports.RMB exchange rate changes have a negative effect on FDI in the short term and long term,but the impact is not significant;(3)Generally speaking,though it has a short term positive effect on the economic growth when RMB's value mark-up.But for a long run,the exchange rate will have a significant negative effect on economic growth.This paper argues that in the process of internationalization of the RMB,we should pay more attention to the RMB exchange rate continued appreciation of the RMB exchange rate brought about by the increase in international demand,and establish related measures to stable exchange rate,maintain sustained economic growth on the basis of preventing the RMB exchange crisis.