Research On The Measurement Of Credit Risk Of Local Government Bonds In China And Its Preventive Measures

After 2008 to cope with the downward pressure on the international economy,promote local economic development,in 2009 the central decision-making by the Ministry of Finance on behalf of local government bonds to expand financing channels for the region.This opens the door to gradually relax the restrictions on local government bonds.This is of great significance to make a move,through more channels to raise funds to cope with the international financial crisis and the domestic economic downturn,enhanced the local economic development of endogenous motivation;at the same time improve China's bond market,boosting China's financial industry diversification,unbundling for local funds demand rigid bank support.From 2009 to 2014 this 5 years the Ministry of Finance on behalf of local government bonds has gradually expanded the scale,and gradually increase and the establishment of local government bonds "spontaneous" pilot,in the exploration and gradually find out a suitable for China's development path of local government bonds.In 2015 the central government completely liberalized the restrictions on local government bonds,allowing local bonds.Behind the steady development strategy,the balance of the financing function and the potential risk of the local government bond is a must.Local government bonds for the long term economic There are both advantages and disadvantages.,although the overall development of our country and place are more advantages than disadvantages,but if the exposure and potential risks are not effectively prevent and solve the harm,then is the final result of the devastating,it may lead to a debt crisis and financial crisis.Therefore,the development of local government bonds in our country has just started to be vigilant against risks,in terms of species involved,the size of the issue,the early warning mechanism and regulatory mechanisms should be under great efforts.Through the research and analysis of the credit risk of local government bonds,so as to take preventive measures,it is very meaningful for the healthy development of local government bonds.In this paper,the local government to issue bonds as the main object of study,through theoretical and empirical analysis of the overall situation and the local details of the combination of the analysis of the local government bond credit risk.First of all,it introduces the concept and function of local government bonds,and defines the local government bonds from the theoretical point of view.After the introduction of the history of our country's local government bonds,from feudalism to the new Chinese,from 1949 to after the reform and opening up,with the development of history comprehensively reflects the various stages of the local government bond issuance and the role of.But the focus is from the national economic development,fiscal revenue and expenditure and local government bonds issued a number of aspects of the development of China's local government bonds.Secondly,it studies the credit risk of China's local government bonds from two angles.A definition is facing local government bond credit risk from the qualitative point of view,and then combined with China's actual situation analysis of China's local government bond credit risk mainly comes from the local instability of the financial income and local credit cannot be maintained continuously.Two,from the quantitative point of view,take Beijing as an example to use KMV model to calculate the default probability of Beijing local government bonds and the reasonable scale of issuing bonds.Get the following conclusions in the model calculation process: first,to reduce the credit default risk to the reasonable control of the debt scale,bond issuance accounted for the local fiscal revenue can guarantee the greater the proportion of default distance decreases the probability of default is greater,the greater the risk of credit default;otherwise the greater the distance between the probability of default is smaller,the credit risk is small.Two,the credit risk of local government bonds is closely related to the development of regional economy.Three,control the size of local bonds is the key to prevent local debt credit risk.Finally,through the introduction of foreign countries in the local government bond credit risk prevention experience,combined with the actual situation of our country,gives some of our local government bond credit risk prevention measures:Including: improve the credit rating system,standardize the disclosure of information,strengthen government regulation,optimize the design of local government bonds,promote the sinking fund,strengthen the security.