| During 2014,approved by the State Council,there are ten provinces can issue local government bonds,include Shandong province and Qingdao.During 2015,the local government plans to issue more than 3 trillion to replace debt.Local government bonds can alleviate the local financial burden.It is expected that the financing mode of local government bonds will become the main way of local government financing.Therefore,it is very important to study the credit risk of local government bonds and the scale of issuing bonds.Firstly,this paper introduced the local government debt and bond theories,drew on the experience of U.S.and Japan municipal bond market experience,explored the development direction of municipal bond in China.Secondly,this paper based on the present situation to analysis the same and the different among 8 provincial government bonds.Our local debt scale increment is large.On the one hand,it reduced the local government debt.On the other hand,it also increased the risk of debt in the future.At the same time,the different between local government and national bond interest rates was small,which can not reflect the characteristics of the bond risk premium.It need market reform for development and growth.What's more,there is Matthew effect of the development of local government bond.It can increase regional development gap.Thirdly,based on the data of local government bonds issued of Shandong Province,this paper uses the modified KMV model to estimate the local debt credit risk and security bond size from 2016 to 2020.It shows these bonds will not default in short term,but the size of issued bonds had exceeded the scope of security.Until 2019,Shandong will face the peak of debt repaying.With the decline in economic growth,the pressure of local debt amplified.The credit risk of local government bonds should attract attention.It is suggested to optimize financial model along the path of local debt scale,term structure and local financial system. |
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