| In recent years,China's bond market is developing faster and faster , and the size and quantity of bonds are growing rapidly.In particular, the growth rate of corporate bonds unusually rapid. With the development of the bond market in China's financial market, the financial market has been brought a certain amount of risk.The most important risk in the bond market is credit risk, which requires us to strengthen the identification and control of credit risk.At present, the development of China's bond market has a big gap compared with developed countries.From the point of the overall economy view, the main body of the bond market in China, there are still overcapacity, the transformation of the industrial structure, and the more systemic risk.From the point of the industry view, the stock market can be seen, the number of Listed Companies in the manufacturing industry accounted for a large proportion of the number of Listed Companies, the impact of credit risk on the market as a whole can not be ignored.This paper is based on the analysis of the problems exposed in the case of credit default of listed companies, and then analyzes the enlightenment to the healthy development of China's corporate debt market.From the point of view of the bond itself, we analyze the core elements of the bond credit risk is the main issue of its profitability and solvency ability to meet the demand for bonds issued from the payment.The method of analyzing the credit risk includes the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the bond subject. The quantitative analysis includes the analysis of the company's financial indicators and the quantitative measurement of the credit risk.There is a big gap between our country and developed countries in measuring credit risk.As the credit rating system is not perfect, credit rating as the main means of measuring credit risk has not yet fully play its due role.The KMV model is put forward by KMV, a structured credit risk measurement and forecasting methods, through a lot of empirical tests, has been widely affirmed the academic and social organizations, become an international credit risk measurement model.In May 26, 2015, Zhuhai Zhongfu announced <2012 corporate bonds (the first phase) payment of interest and can not be timely and full payment of principal of the progress of the announcement>.“ 2 Zhongfu 01” can not repay,which means it default.When "12 Zhongfu 01 bonds, credit and debt credit rating results were AA,but the company's indicators are showing a downward trend.And in 2012, two consecutive years of losses in 2013.Although the results of its credit rating is so high, it is still a series of problems after the issue, this issue is thought-provoking.When 12 Zhongfu 01 issue,beverage packaging industry and related industry overall downturn.Overcapacity, the external environment of the enterprise has formed a problem.These have become an important cause of Zhuhai Zhongfu losses.This article from the credit default event of the issuance of the analysis of macro economic background, the bond market situation, the overall trend in the industry, before and after issuing governance, Zhuhai Zhongfu the company's business structure, shareholder support etc. Combined with the quantitative analysis of the bond principal of Zhuhai Zhongfu, through mining before, during and after the event information, combing the exposed 12 Zhongfu 01 credit default events in question.Through the macro, meso and micro analysis of the three levels, the company's credit risk to be sorted out for regulators, bond issuers and investors in the future to participate in the bond market to provide some reference. |
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