Research On Influencing Factors Of Credit Risk Of Issuers Of Coal Industry

In 2015,26 listed coal enterprises only made 1.543 billion net profit,plunging more than 95%compared with last year.11 enterprises lost in the last year,which accounted for as much as four percent.In the 2016,coal industry began to bottom out,but the situation is still not optimistic.What’s more,banks began to shrink the credit level to the coal corporates,so coal enterprises’ capital sides became tight.From 2014 to 2016,with the outbreak of default in China’s bond market,the public began to pay attention to credit risk and explore the factors really.Through analyzing the data of factors,we can predict the corporate credit risk in advance and do reasonable investment strategies or take measures in advance to avoid losses.The coal industry as a major proportion of default debt in the industry and then investors and creditors concerned about it.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the credit risk of coal enterprises.This paper analyzes the macro-level causes of credit risk in the coal industry by the regional macroeconomic level,the regional financial strength and the regional industry level,and analyzes the micro-level causes by the enterprise background,credit rating and the enterprise financial situation.Then,this paper takes 85 coal industry bond issuers with stock bonds in 2016 as samples.According to the definition of modern credit risk,the samples are divided into groups with credit risk events including 23 samples and without credit risk events including 62 samples.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the independent variables are selected 5 and 10 from the macroscopic level and the micro level respectively,and the correlation analysis is carried out and the Logistic model is used for empirical analysis.The probability equation of the credit risk of coal enterprises is obtained.The result shows that the regional CPI and the regional fixed asset investment price index of the macro-level and the credit rating,the total assets return rate,the total assets turnover rate,the asset-liability ratio and the ratio of current assets to total assets of the micro-level have significant impacts to the credit risk of issuers of the coal industry.Among them,the asset-liability ratio and the ratio of current assets to total assets have positive impacts on the credit risk of issuers of the coal industry,that is,the lower the value,the lower the credit risk of coal industry.The remaining indicators have negative impact on the credit risk of issuers of the coal industry,that is,the lower the index value,the higher the credit risk of issuers of the coal industry.Through the seven indicators above,this paper generates a forecast credit risk size model which get the correct rate of 89.4%.It can help investors to predict the credit risk of coal industry enterprises in advance,and to help corporate creditors,investors and managers to make a preliminary judgment about the enterprise’s future credit risk.