The Influencing Factors Of Credit Risk In China’s Credit Bond Market

In recent years,China has faced multiple challenges such as trade frictions,repeated epidemics,and economic downturn,and the external environment has presented a severe and complex situation.In this context,the number of default events in China’s credit bond market is increasing,the defaulting issuerinvolves a wide range,the amount of default and the number of default events continue to rise,the reasons for default are complicated,and the pressure to prevent default risks of credit bonds is further increased.In order to create a healthy and orderly credit bond market and sophisticatedly promote the high-quality development of China’s financial industry,it is very important and necessary to analyze the causes of bond defaults with new economic characteristics at this stage,and to analyzethe influencing factors of my country’s credit bond default risks.The improvement of market risk management level has practical guiding significance.By selecting companies with actual bond default records from 2014 to 2021,this paper first analyzes the default characteristics of the credit bond market from the aspects of default time,the number of defaulting issuer,the number of default bond,default amount,industry,region and enterprise nature of defaulting issuer,and then tries to build a mathematical model to analyzes the influencing factors of credit debt default risk.In the specific empirical analysis,50 bond-issuing companies with complete 2020 financial data were selected from the actual defaulting companies as the default group,and according to the principle of the same industry and similar asset scale,150 normal companies with good credit records were selected as the control group according to the ratio of 1:3.The model first establishes a Logistic model containing only financial indicators as a basic model,and then gradually add introduces company attribute indicators,industry category indicators and macroeconomic indicators to establish research models for comparison,and finally select the model with the highest prediction accuracy and analyze the factors that significantly affect bond defaulting.Through the above two stages of analysis and research,it is found that:First,the scope of the defaulting bond issuers are expanding,and the trend of diffusion from private enterprises to large central enterprises and state-owned enterprises is obvious,and the obvious change in bond defaulting companies from low-rated enterprises to high-rated enterprises indicates that the overall economic environment is in a downward stage,all types of companies have the possibility of bond default.Second,there have been more bond default events in comprehensive,real estate development and construction companies in recent years,which may be related to macroeconomic changes and industry adjustments.In the future,the default risk management of these types of bonds should be strengthened.Third,according to the prediction of the Logistic model,it is known that among the financial indicators,the assetliability ratio,net sales interest rate,sales expense ratio,total asset turnover ratio and operating income growth rate have a significant impact on bond-issuing companies;non-financial indicators The introduction of company attributes,industry categories and macroeconomic indicators can also significantly improve the model’s accuracy in predicting bond defaults.Finally,combined with financial indicators and non-financial indicators,this paper constructs a binary Logistic model,and the model recognition accuracy and AUC value reach 98.19%,indicating that the model has a good prediction.