Evaluation Of Herbivorous Animal Husbandry Productivity And Development Potential Of Pastoral Areas In Northwest China

The Northwest China is rich in natural resources,which is the ideal area for the development of animal husbandry.And in the country to speed up the adjustment of industrial structure,promote the agricultural supply side of the structural reform and the "Silk Road economic zone" construction and other macroeconomic background,the state has repeatedly stressed the optimization of livestock structure and regional layout,and vigorously supports the development of herbivorous animal husbandry.Therefore,China's main production areas of animal husbandry gradually moved to the northwest,and it has become an inevitable trend.Based on this,to study the productivity level and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry in the Northwest pastoral areas,is to analyze how much animal products can be provided for other regions under the premise of ensuring the consumption demand of animal derived food in the region.It is worth in-depth study whether the Northwest pastoral areas can seize the important historical opportunity of implementing the strategy of transfering livestock husbandry to the West and North in China,it will make its herbivorous animal husbandry upgraded and leap-forward development.The results can provide a scientific basis for the adjustment of national macro policy and the formulation of regional development strategy.According to the requirements of the major strategic consulting projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering,the "Northwest Territories" covers 7 provinces,including Shaanxi,Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia except the Eastern League 4.This paper takes the pastoral areas of Gansu,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia(except the Eastern League 4)as the research object,to study on the evaluation and development potential of herbivorous animal husbandry productivity in Northwest Pastoral Area by literature and yearbook information,a typical survey,and expert advice,and the principal component analysis and gray prediction method GM(1,1)model.The results are as follows:1.The Northwest pastoral areas are sparsely populated,rich in grassland resources.On the whole,grass and livestock are in balance,but natural grassland overloaded seriously.In 2015,the local natural grassland livestock overloading rate as high as 34.4%.2.During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period,cattle and mutton production in Northwest pastoral area was increasing year by year with an average annual increase of 4.0% and 2.9%,but milk production declined with an average annual decline of 1.2%.In 2015,the livestock products in the northwest pastoral areas can meet the needs of 217 million 959 thousand urban and rural residents in Northwest China.3.The results of principal component analysis show that the basic advantages and development level of herbivorous livestock industry in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are higher.The main factors affecting the development of industry are the slaughter rate of cattle and sheep,and the yield per unit area of pasture.4.Forecast results show that in 2020,beef and mutton production in the Northwest pastoral areas increased by 52.8 thousand tons and 241.2 thousand tons respectively compared with 2015.The development potential of this area is relatively large,and the milk production is still decreasing.If by 2020,the total output of local forage increased 25% and cattle slaughter rate increased by 15%,the pastoral area of northwest of animal husbandry production can achieve the overall balance of livestock.5.According to the forecasting results and the optimization plan,7 suggestions are put forward for the development of herbivorous animal husbandry in the Northwest pastoral areas: First,improve the grassland management system and implement the management and protection measures according to law.Second,improve the natural grassland and strengthen grassland protection and construction.Third,strengthen the construction of artificial grassland and promote the development of pasture industrialization.Fourth,change cattle and sheep feeding mode and appropriately add feeding.Fifth,establish professional cooperatives,strengthen the information platform construction and promote trade in animal products.Sixth,increase capital investment and actively implement a variety of subsidies.Seventh,increase investment in science and technology,strengthen scientific and technological innovation and practical technology promotion and improve the degree of improvement and the contribution rate of science and technology.