The Research On Book-tax Differences And Enterprise Financial Latent Crisis

Book-Tax Differences(BTD)refers to the difference between book income reported in accordance with accounting standards and tax income reported in accordance with the income tax law.Financial crisis prediction has been a hot spot of scholars at home and abroad.Based on this,many kinds of forecasting models have been established.Most of the traditional financial crisis forecasting models only consider financial reporting indicators,while ignoring the effect of non-finance index.This paper introduces Book-Tax Differences which is a non-financial indicator related to taxation into the traditional financial crisis forecasting model,and establishes Logit Regression Model,trying to study the relationship between Book-Tax Differences and Financial Latent Crisis,and further explore whether the Book-Tax Differences can provide incremental information for the traditional financial crisis forecasting model.Based on the literature review and theoretical analysis,this paper conducts an empirical research using A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2015 as samples.Descriptive statistics show that Book-Tax Differences has a high information content and contains important financial latent crisis prediction information.The regression results show that there is a significant positive correlation between Large Negative Book-Tax Differences and Financial Latent Crisis.And the Large Negative Book-Tax Differences is still seized of predictable value as time goes by,whereas the forecast results of Large Positive Book-Tax Differences gradually weakens.At the same time,the modified model with the addition of Book-Tax Differences indicator is more effective and can be used to extend the forecasting time of the model.