Research On Measurement, Early Warning And Prevention And Control Of Systemic Financial Risks In China

Since the second half of the 19 th century,there have been many financial crises around the world.The occurrence of previous financial crises will have a very serious and far-reaching impact on the economy and society of the country and even many countries in the world.In recent years,China's real estate,local government debt,shadow banking and other areas of many problems,increased the vulnerability of the financial system,thus increasing the possibility of systemic risk outbreak.Based on this,it is of great significance to study the current situation of China's systemic financial risks,and to measure,warn and prevent and control Chinese systemic financial risks.This paper firstly sorts out relevant theories and literatures on systemic financial risks,including the connotation,characteristics,causes,transmission and amplification channels of systemic financial risks.Secondly,the current situation and risk factors of China's systemic financial risks are sorted out,and the sources of systemic financial risks in China are mainly the real estate industry and local government debt.In the empirical part,the first step is to construct the financial stress index(FSI)to obtain the financial stress level of China during the sample period.The second step is to build a binary Logit model.The explained variables are 0-1 dummy variables converted from the FSI index.The explanatory variables are selected from the financial system,foreign trade,real economy and international environment.After setting variables,Logit model is used to fit the probability of systemic financial risk outbreak.Finally,ARIMA model is used to predict the probability of occurrence of systemic financial risks in 2019.Through theoretical and empirical research,it is found that the financial stress index has a strong fitting effect on the pressure level of China's financial market,and can be used to measure and continuously monitor the risk of China's systematic financial risk accumulation stage.The Logit model results in the sample period show that after China's economy enters a new stage,the level of systemic financial risk in China increases year by year due to historical accumulation problems and economic transformation.According to the forecast,the level of systemic financial risk in the four quarters of 2019 in China did not exceed the threshold,and the probability of occurrence of systemic financial risk was relatively low.Based on the research results,this paper puts forward several countermeasures and Suggestions for the prevention and control of systemic financial risks in China from the perspectives of risk warning mechanism,risk prevention and control mode and risk compensation mechanism.