The Research On Financial Early Warning Of Listed Companies In Automobile Industry

"Industrial 4.0" which based on "smart manufacturing" will be applied to the automobile manufacturing industry,and China has also introduced a number of policies to promote the development of the automobile industry,and the restructuring of the automotive industry,the pattern of automobile manufacturing industry will be changed.In the circumstances of domestic and global competition more intense,because China's auto manufacturing R & D investment,research and development capacity is low,independent brands weak,longer project cycle and so on.In addition,The long period of the automobile manufacturing industry has resulted in short-term loans for long-term investments in many companies,which will make the automobile manufacturing industry face policy risk,market risk,investment risk,financing risks and many other risks,if the financial situation can not be predicted in a timely manner,take effective measures to eliminate the crisis in the source,the enterprise will fall into financial difficulties.Even if the crisis occurred,enterprises should take measures to resolve the crisis from the important aspects make it return to the right track.But there are still few researches on the financial early warning of automobile manufacturing industry,the model is too complex and hard to operate,it is difficult to apply in the enterprise.In this paper first summarizes the financial early warning and domestic automobile manufacturing financial early warning research status quo,based on the theory of financial early warning and the status quo of automobile manufacturing enterprises and the causes of financial risk,Initially established the automobile manufacturing listed companies financial early warning index system,combined with relevant data,used the K-S test,independent sample T test and nonparametric test method to select the indicators that could effectively distinguish between financial crisis and non-financial crisis,and qualitative sorting of indicators.Second,introduced the basic principle of the mutation series method and the applicability to the financial early warning,and calculated the sample company's debt index,operating index,profit index,growth index and financial early warning index,combined with the actual situation of automobile manufacturing industry to determine the financial warningred line.Finally,tested the accuracy of the financial early warning index system and the applicability of the model and found to be more accurate.However,for the enterprise,If the financial early warning index in the early warning of the red line below the possibility of financial crisis will be great,management should be particularly concerned;if the index above the red line does not mean that the enterprise will not be a financial crisis,should still be careful to operate.