Civil Automobile Market Demand Forecasting Research In Jining

Automobile sales are related to the development of the automobile industry and the operation of the automobile industry chain.The sales to maintain the normal operation of the automotive market,the government to adjust the national economic development and governance of traffic is of great significance.In recent years,Chinese civil automobile industry has developed rapidly,becoming one of the pillar industries of national economic development.Jining is the third-tier city of Shandong Province.The economic and industrial development of this region is in the period of rapid development.The operation of the civil automobile industry is becoming more and more mature,and the research on the automobile sales in this area is representative for the country.It is very important for the goverrnment to solve the traffic problem,grasp the overall trend of the automobile industry and carry on the traffic infrastructure construction by studying the civil automobile sales volume and the overall forecast of the automobile sales volume through the macroscopic data.On the basis of having researched the influence index of car sales volume and combining with the corresponding influence index data in Jining area,we test whether each influencing factor being obvious causal relationship with the actual automobile sales volume and select the indexes which have obvious influence relation to create index system of influencing factors.All kinds of secondary indexes which affect the sales volume of vehicles are processed to reduce dimension.The comprehensive first-order index values are obtained,and the forecasting model is constructed as the independent variables.The forecasting value of the automobile sales volume can be obtained by forecasting the future value of the first-class index,which can be more accurate by the error correction of the forecasted model.The data of civil automobile sales volume and its influencing factors in Jining area are derived from Shandong Statistical Yearbook,Jining Statistical Yearbook and Automobile Industry Association.By using the idea of reducing the dimension of the same data,it is possible to avoid the loss of important data information by taking the comprehensive index into the model.It is compared with the actual sales volume of Jining area,and is modified to improve the accuracy of forecasting.Finally,according to the design of the model,the auto sales forecasting system is designed to realize the automatic forecast of the civil automobile market demand in Jining.