An Empirical Analysis Of China Commercial Banks' Non-performing Loan Ratio

Since China's reform and opening up,China's sustained economic growth,economic increment leaps to the world,behind China's rapid economic development,is also associated with a rapid increase in risk.For a long time,our country enterprise financing channel choice is limited,mainly through indirect financing bank loans.Bank as one of the most important financial institutions in the economy,with capital distribution functions.In macro economy,the transformation of economic \ "three phase superposition\" big background,credit risk,in some industries,parts of the gradual exposure of the credit business of commercial Banks are badly affected.In recent years,the bank of the slowdown in the growth of our business,the continuous deterioration of the quality of credit assets,reflects the structural contradictions in the economic transformation of conduction from the bank,mainly displays in the commercial bank non-performing loans and non-performing loan ratio of the total respectively.Commercial Banks as an important financial intermediary,is a bridge between the capital surplus and capital demanders,is closely related to people's life and the development of all walks of life.Commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio can reflect the economic development of a region or country stability index,while at present,China's commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio compared with other countries in the world is not too high.But since 2012 has been rise,and focus on loans accounted for the rise.To better play to the commercial bank credit intermediary function,studies the key factors that affect commercial Banks non-performing loans,put forward the preventive measures,is one of the important problems to be solved at present stage in China's banking industry.In the analysis of this article,the first concrete in detail from various aspects,this paper introduces the present situation of our country commercial bank non-performing loans combined with relevant theory,empirical research experience at home and abroad,aiming at characteristic of the economic system and macro background,from the point of view of theoretical analysis of the macroeconomic factors,government intervention,and influences on non-performing loans the Banks themselves.In the empirical analysis,the GDP growth rate,broad money M2 growth factors of macroeconomic fluctuations,government intervention and the ownership structure of Chinese banking industry have holding proportion and distribution of enterprise property right structure of China enterprises accounted for;As well as internal factors in the management of the Banks themselves,such as cost income ratio,non-interest income accounted for said the bank operation management level and the level of diversification;To non-performing loan provisioning rate,capital adequacy,said the bank's risk management level;With index of bank assets as control variable.In 11 listed commercial Banks in the first quarter of 2009 to 2009 in the third quarter of the quarterly data as the basis,using fixed effect panel data model are analyzed.Finally it is concluded that the commercial bank non-performing loans is not only related to macroeconomic factors,government intervention,the external factors,also with its own internal management factors.In the macro factors,commercial bank non-performing loans to liquidate the pro-cyclical.In the booming economy,enterprise management benefit,the financial situation is good,the reimbursement ability is stronger,commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio is low.In government intervention,the government intervention is mainly through the banking system of ownership structure and the distribution of enterprise property right structure of China enterprises accounted for,and a greater influence on the enterprise property right structure of state-owned enterprises accounted for.In the bank's own management factor,the cost income ratio,rate of bad loan provisions,capital adequacy,asset scale of bank non-performing loan ratio all show significant correlation.Combining theoretical and empirical analysis results,for our country commercial bank oneself circumstance in recent years,puts forward Suggestions for the commercial bank non-performing loans to prevent measures.Can effectively solve the problem of our country commercial bank bad loans,not only related to stable development of banking itself,also with the development of China's financial sector and the development of the whole national economy has an important relationship.Improve the quality of loans,to curb rising non-performing loans,is the key of the banking reform under the new situation.