A Study On The Impact Of Stock Index Futures On Stock Market

April 16,2010 China launched our first stock index futures contracts:CSI 300 index futures contracts.5 years after its launch,April 16,2015,the China Financial Futures Exchange has launched the SSE 50 stock index futures and CSI 500 stock index futures,and thus in the type of futures to join the large cap stocks and small cap stocks,more Good rich stock index futures market.Beginning in mid-June 2015,just twenty days,the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen crash index,the two cities generally fell more than 50%of individual stocks,and ultimately lead to thousands of shares to stop the tide.Faced with such stocks plummeted,many people point to the stock index futures.Therefore,the research issue in this article is in the stock market during the stock index futures is really the reason for the stock market crash.This paper focuses on the analysis of the impact of the SSE 50 stock index futures on the SSE 50 index.At the same time,it is necessary to explore other factors that may affect the volatility of the spot market,from the perspective of national policy,macroeconomic and micro market transactions.The research content mainly includes the qualitative and quantitative aspects.The qualitative part analyzes the impact of stock index futures on the stock market through the literature review,the SSE 50 index and the basic introduction of the SSE 50 index futures,discusses the main factors that affect the volatility of the spot price.In order to lay the theoretical foundation for empirical analysis.Quantitative part includes the stock index futures and other related variables time series on the stock index time series of multiple regression analysis.First,select the data,the data range from April 16,2017 to March 17,2017,that is,the Shanghai stock market 50 futures index futures to the IH1703 month futures contract settlement date,in which the stock index futures use the main contract law to select the day closing price to establish the time series,After selecting the other control variables to improve the model,through the correlation test,the final determination to increase the SHIBOR overnight interest rate and the SSE 50 index volume three indicators to complete the model multiple stepwise regression analysis.Finally,the comparative analysis method is used to study the influence of various indexes before and after the introduction of the New Deal on the spot market volatility and improve the empirical conclusion.Finally,the empirical analysis concluded that:First,the SSE 50 index trading volume for the Shanghai 50 index trend there is a positive impact,but the impact of a smaller degree of turnover on behalf of the market investment preferences,and this investment preference for stock price changes exist effect.Second,margin trading activities on the stock market price movements have an impact.Financing activities to increase the amount of market funds to improve the leverage rate,before the introduction of the New Deal to promote the stock price trend,but in the stock market after the reverse impact of the increase in financing activities,making a negative correlation between the two.Marriage activities on behalf of the empty side behavior,has little effect on the stock price trend.Thirdly,this paper focuses on the impact of stock index futures on the stock price during the period.Whether it is segmented inspection or full data test can be on the 50 stock index futures on the stock market there is a positive impact,but the impact is very small,and according to comparative analysis,can be considered the introduction of the New Deal in the gold to ease the stock price continued to decline,But less affected.And finally concluded that stock index futures is not the culprit of the stock market crash,stock index futures impact on the stock price crash is very small,the occurrence of the stock market is caused by a variety of factors together.