Equipment Manufacturing Tax Revenue Forecast And Analysis

In May 8,2015,the State Council issued the " China-made 2025",and opened the prelude of the decade program,affiliated to manufacturing power strategy.April 6,2016,Premier Li Keqiang presided over a State Council executive meeting,adopted the "the plan of equipment manufacturing industry standardization and quality improvement ",and developed a detailed plan for the manufacturing industry's prosperity.Thus the thought of manufacturing power has become one of the most important guiding ideology.As an major part of equipment manufacturing industry,facility manufacturing industry has become an important symbol to measure the level of industrialization and economic strength in China,an important pillar industry of China's national economy,and significant guarantee of various industries' industrial upgrading and technological progress.The special facility manufacturing industry and the general facility manufacturing industry are the most important two parts of the facility manufacturing industry.The special facility manufacturing industry is an advanced manufacturing industry which provides equipment for the national economy,national defense and infrastructure construction.Due to the rapid growth of investment,state support for independent innovation and the acceleration of the trend of industrial upgrading,the special facility manufacturing industry in China is currently showing good growth trend,and the overall industry is booming.In recent years,the scale of investment in fixed assets is increasing and the demand for special facility is increasing.General facility manufacturing industry is the basic industry of facility manufacturing industry,which provides power,transmission,basic processing and other basic components for the industry.The wide range of industry product applications includes aerospace,transportation,petrochemical and other markets.In recent years,special facility manufacturing industry and general facility manufacturing industry's tax revenue is rising,which is related with the rapid growth of China's economy.Furthermore,the facility manufacturing industry playing anincreasingly important role in China's infrastructure also influence the tax revenue's rise.Tax revenue is not only the major part of the national fiscal revenue,but also the material basis for the government to exercise its variable functions.Conducting the tax revenue forecast for an industry effectively is helpful to tax staffs to anticipate future tax revenue and to plan the development of the industry.And effective prediction also has reference value to the development of the tax policy.The tax revenue forecast of facility manufacturing industry is based on the historical data collection of facility manufacturing industry and the analysis of the influence factors of tax revenue,which has positive reference value to the establishment of tax administration plan of facility manufacturing industry.Nowadays,although there are a lot of tax revenue forecasting models,but most of those are used in other industries,the same tax or the national tax revenue forecast,and are not applicable to the exact forecast of tax revenue of facility manufacturing industry.In this paper,the introduction is followed by the carding of the connotation,the present situation,and the development characteristics of the special facility manufacturing and general facility manufacturing industry.Then from two aspects of macro and micro,the paper constructs models,forecasts and analyzes the tax revenue of the special facility manufacturing industry and the general facility manufacturing industry.The macro contents include time series,regression analysis,and trend extrapolation,and the micro contents include analysis based on economic significance and stepwise regression method.Finally the models are evaluated by comparing the relative error and the prediction results,which play an important role in analyzing tax revenue of facility manufacturing industry,and improving the tax collection management of the special facility manufacturing and general facility manufacturing industry.