Dynamic Effects Research Of Interest Rate Shocks,Inflation And Economic Output

The economic development of our country is experiencing three superimposed phase,they are respectively the economic growth speed shift stage,throes of structural adjustment and the pre stimulus digestion period.It is necessary to focus on the influence of various factors on the output.Along with the process of interest rate marketization,the impact of interest rate on economic output is worthy of our attention.In addition,it is also necessary to pay attention to how inflation changes affect the quality of people's life.Firstly,the research background,research significance,research content will be introduced in this paper,and then summarizes the related literature about the impact of interest rates,inflation and economic output,at home and abroad.Secondly,On this basis,there is a brief review of China's economic output,inflation and interest rate changes.Then,using the related theory analysis the internal logical relationship between interest rate shocks,inflation and economic output,then draw the corresponding assunptions.Consequently,the paper tries to use the quarterly data of Shaanxi Province from 2006 to 2015,and applies the time-varying parameter structural vector auto-regression with stochastic volatility model(SV-TVP-VAR)to calculate and analyze the influencing mechanism on economic output from interest rate shock and inflation.Finally gives the conclusion and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.The result shows that:the long-term and short-term responses of economic output to interest rate shock tend to be uniform,the decrease of the actual interest rate results in the increase of economic output,but the increase of the actual interest rate leads to the decrease of economic output;the influences from inflation on economic output witness a smaller variation range in a short run but a larger one in a long run,that is to say,there exists Tobin Effect in Shaanxi Province.