Research On Power Demand Forcasting In Fushan District Of Yantai City

Safe,stable and strong power grid environment is an important guarantee of social and economic rapid development.Power demand forecasting,which is an important component of the electric power market analysis,is the foundation of industry production plan and the electric power enterprise business plan,and is the basis for investment projects and business activities.Therefore,accurate and reliable power demand forecasting is the important precondition for improving the level of power grid planning.Based on power demand situation of Fushan District in Yantai City as the research object,the short-term power market forecasting and long-term electric power demand forecasting have been carried out through collecting basic data and choosing the reasonable mathematical model.The main research contents are as follows:(1)According to the power consumption data,the paper analyzes the load growth trend in Fushan district since2005,the industry growth rate of electricity consumption,residents electricity consumption growth rate,load characteristic index,maximum differential peak valley,maximum load using data such as time.The predictor variable and its related variables.are also determined.(2)The short-term power market forecasting model is created based on time series method and the characteristics of the electricity method,and the short-term forecasting evaluation index is determined.The method of time series to predict the power consumption in the whole society and the calculation method for the prediction of electricity power nature process are studied,and the effectiveness of the prediction method is verified by comparing with the actual data.The short-term power market forecasting difficulties and the measures how to improve the accuracy of short-term power are also put forward.(3)Through the output current consumption method and gray system theory method,the medium and long-term electric power market projections model for Fushan district social power consumption are created.The prediction results and related factors are also analyzed through the electricity elasticity coefficient method.The prediction comparison of different methods shows that the gray system theory method is not suitable for power market forecast of Fushan district in Yantai City for a long time,whilethe middle scheme of the output current consumption method is more suitable for long-term power market forecasting of Fushan district.The research results of this paper can provide strong guidance and reference for power market forecasting of Fushan district in Yantai City.