The Analysis Of Power Consumption In Jiangsu Province And Prediction Research

As an important component of China’s energy, electric power resources play avery important role in the improve of economic development and people’s livingstandards. In the background of rapid economic growth of Jiangsu province, thedevelopment of the electric power problems have been more people’s attention. Inrecent years, the electric power development soon in jiangsu province，but the powerconsumption growth faster,contradictions between the supply and demand is serious.The correct method of power consumption of influence factors and prediction, notonly can guide the allocation of resources,can also provide valuable reference forfuture economic policy. This article focuses on three aspects to study electricityconsumption of Jiang su province.Firstly, using the cointegration theory, error correction model method, analysisthe relationship between electric power consumption and GDP, fixed assetsinvestment, heavy industry and population. Cointegration theory study found a stableequilibrium relationship between power consumption in jiangsu province and theinfluencing factors. Due to the existence of the balanced mechanism, error correctionmodel reflect the deviation from short-term actions to the long-term equilibrium level.Error correction coefficient is0.4738, show that deviation of47.38%betweenshort-term electricity consumption value and the long-term equilibrium value will befixed.Secondly, this paper make a systematic study of power consumption cycle inJiangsu province. A correct understanding of the law of cyclical fluctuations is helpfulfor the stable and healthy development of electric power industry. This paper usedH-P filtering method to analysis the power consumption data from1985to2009injiangsu province,got characteristics of each volatility cycle,these reaserch providesupport for the future predict of electricity consumption trends. The results show that:since1985, the Jiangsu Provincial Power consumption cycle fluctuations in the wholeshow "growth", no decline in the absolute amount, the power consumption has grownat an average rate of10.87%. The province’s power consumption has a significantcharacteristic of "fluctuation in growth",and be most sensitive to the fluctuations ofelectricity consumption in southern region(including Wuxi Suzhou and Changzhou).Finally, from the view of time series,this paper established a grey predictionmodel and cointegration equaton model to forecast the power consumption in Jiangsuprovince in the short-term.Took combination forcasting method to combined predicted values of two model.This method both take the information of the powerconsumption itself but also including the external factors.The results show: the powerconsumption of Jiangsu province will still be greatly improved in the next five years,average annual growth rate is8.75%.Based on the above, this paper put forward the following Suggestions.(1) Makefull attention to the economic development of the jiangsu province, to prevent thepower demand exceeds supply.(2) Change the way of economic growth positively,adjust and improve the industrial structure.(3) Establishing power warning system,strengthen the power grid construction.(4) Actively control the population growth,implement the family planning policy.(5) Strengthen the propaganda of residentialelectricity saving wareness.