Application Study On Quantitative Evaluation Of VFM In Toll Free Highway

Referring to the theory and practice of VFM quantitative evaluation at home and abroad,this thesis studies the measures of VFM quantitative evaluation of toll-free highway projects by combining the characteristics and localization environment and puts forward the future development direction and suggestions for improvement so as to provide theoretical and practical reference for VFM.The thesis mainly adopts the method of case study,taking J County Nol highway PPP project as an example,combined with the methods of expert consultation,literature research,qualitative and quantitative analysis,expounds the characteristics of toll free highway and build the VFM evaluation model by PSC method.The key parameters,such as discount rate,risk loss coefficient and reasonable profit margin of social investors,are analyzed.According to actual cases,the two core indexes of the model,PSC value and PPP value,and the index factors are calculated.The thesis uses sensitivity analysis to explain the applicability and solves some difficult or confusing problems.The main conclusions are as follows:First,when using PSC method,we should establish a specific evaluation model and parameter indexes according to the specific conditions to ensure the rationality of the data.Second,the discount rate has a great influence on the VFM evaluation conclusion.Improper values may lead to false or false error of the evaluation conclusion,so it is necessary to revise the discount rate.From the perspective of the cost of public funds,discount rate is not simply referring to the local government bond interest rates over the same period.The risk transfer coefficient can be introduced into the CAPM model to establish a discount rate system suitable for specific circumstances.Third,VFM sensitivity analysis can help PPP project decision-makers identify sensitive factors that affect VFM conclusions.Through the VFM critical point analysis,it helps decision-makers to define the limits of the impact of VFM conclusions and the extent of tolerable changes without making decision errors.Finally,by means of sensitivity analysis,VFM can be used as a management tool to monitor PPP projects.From the perspective of the whole life cycle of the project,the concept of value for money is implemented.