The Management Research On Identification And Quantification Of Financing Risk Of Railway PPP Project

The PPP financing mode has attracted many scholars to research and analysis since it has been put forward at the end of 80's in last century. Public private partnership, namely PPP(Public Private Partnership) mode as a new kind of financing mode that make the advantages of government, private investors and financial institutions combine. It not only can reduce the financial pressure and improve operational efficiency and service quality, but also bring stable income for private investors and financial institutions. Therefore, it is important to speed up the research and application of PPP for theory and practice in china. Different scholars has different direction and focus of the study of PPP. This paper focuses on the research of the method of risk quantification of railway PPP financing project. The main contents include the following aspects.First of all, this paper based on a lot of reading of literature to summarize risk factor checklist of the financing mode of PPP project on railway. The risk factor checklist is well prepared for the follow- up research work.Secondly, based on the study of analysis of variance, the variance analysis is introduced in quantification of the financing risk factor. This paper describes the theory of variance analysis systematically and combines variance analysis and Bayesian theory to build a mathematical model for financing risk factor of railway PPP projects.Then, the mathematical model is used in the assessment of financing risk of PPP project on railway. And introduces the steps of application of risk evaluation of PPP financing mode of railway and summarize the checklist of solving measures for risk factor.Finally, combined with the case of the Central West Inner Mongolia coal channel project to verify the effectiveness of the mathematica l model of risk factor quantification of PPP project. The conclusion is that the mathematical model is more effective in quantization process of the risk factors of PPP project on railway after verification.The research of this paper has following two aspects' significance on Implementation of PPP project of railway. Build the quantitative model of risk and risk evaluation system of PPP financing mode of railway and analysis and research the treatment measures of financing risk PPP project of railway. In a certain degree of it can supple and perfect the existing problems of financing risk evaluation of PPP project. On the other hand, the study of risk quantification can provide method reference for investors' of PPP project to treat financing risks reasonably, and can effectively improve the level of risk management and reduce the cost of risk management.