Spatial Pattern Evolution And Prediction Of Land Use In Daqing City

Land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)is an important form of land system.Because of the economic and social factors such as land resource protection,food security,environmental protection,urban and rural development.Express how the interaction relationship between land use pattern process and human society.It's closely related that the complex environmental development problems and LUCC(land-use and land-cover change).As an important energy reserve base,Daqing plays an important role in China's social and economic development and national energy security.It has been guided by the mode of development "city of oil,oil is the city" since 1995,"Songji Mitsui" output oil,to 1979 the city of Daqing has built.However,the development and utilization of petroleum resources seriously damaged the ecological environment.The degradation of grassland,land alkalization and desertification are common in the oil cities.The industrial wastewater treatment rate is low,the urban surface water pollution is serious,the groundwater is seriously overdrawn and the water quantity is not enough and a series of ecological environment destruction.At present,the process of urbanization in China is accelerating,under the energy supply and in order to ensure the sustainable development,sustainable development,eco-city construction,urban transformation and other development strategies,the land use change in Daqing Research is very important.In this paper,the land use pattern of Daqing City in 1978,1996,2007 and 2014 is taken as the basic data source,and systematically analyzed the spatial pattern of land use in Daqing City from three aspects:quantity,space and landscape pattern.Index including land use transfer matrix,land use dynamic degree,information entropy and landscape scale,and makes a comprehensive and systematic analysis in time and space.The driving factors of land use change in Daqing City are analyzed and the constraints are defined as the transformation rules of CA-Markov model.The specific driving factor analysis includes buffer analysis of slope,road traffic and administrative center in social and economic factors.Based on the analysis of the validity of the model,the spatial pattern of land use in Daqing City in 2032 was predicted,and the concrete conclusions were as follows:(1)Analysis of land use change from the quantitative:The structure of land use in Daqing City changed significantly during the period of 1978-2014,and the growth and the growth rate were of cultivated land was the largest,and cultivated land was the dominant land.Grass and unused land are largely reduced.According to the change of inter-species transfer matrix,the main reason for the reduction of grassland is grassland conversion to crop land and unused land.And the increase of forest land and construction land is mainly from cultivated land.(2)Analysis of land use change from the perspective of time and space:the relatively dramatic changes in the study area are Daqing urban area,Dulpole Mongolian Autonomous County and Zhaoyuan County,the relative change is weak for Lindian County and Zhaozhou County,The results of information entropy analysis are also consistent.The increase of cultivated land is mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Daqing urban area,and most areas in Zhaoyuan County,especially in the southern region,eastern and western Dulbert and the northern and eastern parts of Lindian County.The waters are more severe in the southern region of Zhaoyuan.Construction of land to increase the main dynamic degree is mainly concentrated in the central urban area of Daqing.And the main areas of grassland reduction are concentrated in the south of Lindian County and Duerbote Mongolian Autonomous County.Compared with 2007 and 2014,the land use change was more active in the study area from 1978 to 2007.(3)From the analysis of the change of landscape pattern index can be obtained:the overall landscape pattern in the region tends to be diversified,and the degree of landscape fragmentation is gradually deepened.The diversity of Daqing urban area and Duerbote Mongolian autonomous county increased,and the diversities of Lindian,Zhaoyuan and Zhaozhou decreased.Overall,the dominant patches of cultivated land in the landscape pattern were still significant,but the degree of connection of the landscape type of the study area is reduced,the degree of refinement of the landscape patches increases,and some of the landscape patches are fragmented under the increasing degree of landscape fragmentation.In terms of geographical area,the landscape spread index of Lindian County,Zhaozhou County and Zhaoyuan County increased,and the overall value of Lindian County and Zhaozhou County was larger.It shows that the patch type is more agglomeration,but with the overall degree of landscape fragmentation gradually deepened,the role of dominant plaque has declined.The shape of landscape patches is more complex under the increase of human disturbance.(4)From the analysis of factors affecting the land use pattern:the slope,administrative center and traffic significantly affect the land use pattern.Most of the urban and rural construction land is located in the low slope,closer to the administrative center and traffic routes the scope of the administrative center and the traffic road.Administrative centers and traffic roads have a strong adsorption force for construction land.Arable land area was accelerated upward trend,in the low slope,away from the administrative center and near the road area.(5)Under the CA-Markov module of IDRISI software,the land use pattern of 2014 is simulated and predicted according to the land use area transfer matrix and suitability Atlas.The simulation results show that the KAPPA value is 78.44,and the accuracy of grid simulation is up to 85%,which is verified by the simulation and actual land use pattern of KAPPA index and quantity.It shows that the model is basically consistent with the actual,credible,can be based on the Daqing City,2032 land use space model to simulate.(6)The spatial pattern of land use in 2032 shows that cultivated land is still dominant,taking a gradual increase,but the increase is slightly slower than before,and the construction land area is growing steadily.Woodland will have a substantial increase,the proportion increased from 3.77%to 5.28%,in the next 15 years.This has been closely linked with Daqing adhere to the green development concept for many years and to develop practical management measures.Grassland,waters and other land areas are still decreasing.More effective measures must be taken to protect the waters in the study area and to control grassland degradation rates.