Analysis Of Labor Force Status In China

As China becoming a country with aging labor force,the demographic dividend has been reduced,and the population problem has to be solved.In order to analyze the labor force status in China,this paper assesses the rates of employment population,economically active population and others using a newly proposed modified Lee-Carter model and Logistic regression model.The labor force data is from the fifth national census in 2000,the 1%of the population survey in 2005 and the sixth national census in 2010.The conclusion shows that,the rates of employment population and economically active population show a similar trend,and reflect a significant age characteristics.Due to the development of education,the rate aged 16-25 shows a declining trend.Since China has not yet issued regulations related to production safety before 2005,a large number of workers who engaged in the construction and mining industries were more likely to be injured or even injured to death.Therefore,the proportion of the employment population in 2005 is slightly lower and model fitting ineffectively.In addition,affected statutory retirement age,the rates of male employment and economically active population decreased rapidly in age 50,and appear cut-off point at 60 years old;the same as the rate of female's,they respectively appears in the 45 year old and 50 years old.The proportion of non-economically active population trends may correspond to the above conclusion.This article also assesses non-economically active population in school,loss of ability to work or retired.The paper also shows that due to the event called "xiagang" around 2000,the proportion of unemployed is slightly higher than the other years.The rates during 10 years show a significant linear relationship.So we have predicted the future changes in trends of the proportion of employment population,economically active population and others.The proportion of employment population and economically active population will decrease in 2015.The proportion of people in school will continue to rise.The proportion of retired male population will decrease,while the rate of female will rise after a decline.There is no significant linear relationship in the proportion of unemployed population and incapacity population,so this paper has not made prediction for them.