Actuarial Study On New Rural Social Endowment Insurance Based On Lee-carter Model

With the rapid economic development,people's living standards and quality is getting higher and higher,and thus make people's life longer and longer.Therefore,at present,China is facing the problem of aging population,and it is an important way to guarantee the old age of the elderly in rural areas.The development of rural social endowment insurance in China was described in this paper,and briefly describes the theoretical knowledge of insurance actuarial and the policies of China and Hubei Province on rural endowment insurance.Based on the current rural social endowment insurance policy and relevant insurance actuarial theory knowledge in Hubei Province,the actuarial model of the individual account fund of the new rural social pension insurance that was established in this paper.This article first assumes that human labor capacity is positively related to its physical condition,that is,its ability to work and age is increasing first and then decreasing.Then,it is further assumed that the human income is entirely dependent on its ability to work,that is,to work fully with the full labor force.In the establishment of a new rural social pension insurance personal account actuarial model,according to the age of the age of the establishment of sub-age payment grade discrimination function,to maximize the contribution of the insured,so that the elderly life is the greatest protection.Then,the Lee-Carter model was established based on the mortality data to predict the mortality of future sexes in combination with the time series.Predict the average life expectancy of a person by sex by predicting the mortality rate of the sexes.Finally,the calculating analysis that the prediction of the average life expectancy of different gender combined with individual account actuarial model,that taking feasibility suggestions of possible longevity risk.