| June 26,2015,China's first public real estate trust fund(REITs)products-Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange public offering,which means that the scope of public investment funds extended to the field of real estate,while providing investors with In addition to cash,stocks,bonds,another asset allocation.However,as China's first public offering of REITs p4 roducts,Penghua Qianhai regardless of the subject matter of investment,or operational mechanism,there have been different traditional funds.I believe that it is necessary from the perspective of valuation risk to carry out in-depth study.In order to quantitatively analyze the risks of public REITs in the process of asset valuation and provide scientific risk analysis methods,the author tries to apply the Monte Carlo method to project cash flow risk estimation.First of all,the background and significance of this study as the starting point,combined with the literature review related to REITs,and then transition to the study of this object-"Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs" case,the author of the basis for case selection,data collection Process and the assumptions studied in this paper.Next,the author introduces the basic situation of "Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs",focusing on the case of asset valuation.Then,the author considers more risk parameters in the original valuation model,sets up the estimation model which introduces the uncertainty parameter,and carries on the Monte Carlo simulation experiment with reference to the probability distribution hypothesis given in chapter 3.According to the simulation results of the analysis,the price of each fund than the current transaction price is slightly lower.Indicating "Penghua Qianhai Vanke REITs" have a certain valuation risk. |
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