Research On The Lagged-effect Of State-owned Capital Investment In China

As one of the most important parts of public investment,the state-owned capital investment is an effective means for the government to allocate resources effectively,strengthen the economic strength of the country and carry out macro regulation and control.Under the background of Chinese sustained and rapid economic growth,the state-owned capital investment is of great significance to economic growth of China.The relationship between investment and economic growth is not a new topic,many scholars have conducted in-depth research on the relationship between them,but only focus on the relationship between the two relations is not a function of short-term effect of state-owned investment on economic growth in terms of mechanism.Because the investment in the field of state-owned capital investment,economic benefits is not necessarily can be obviously reflected in the current period,probably in some period after the investment can be fully revealed,may this effect along with the advance of development time and the industry will change,even the effect is different from the short-term effect.Therefore,in order to measure the effect of state-owned capital investment of China roundly and put forward a more reasonable investment portfolio proposal,it is necessary to consider the state-owned capital investment of short-term and long-term effects and consider the current effect of state-owned capital investment and lag effect,this paper will pay more attention to the research on lag effect of state-owned capital investment.This paper will use the data of China's manufacturing industry from 1994 to 2014 as samples,separately from the total perspective and industry perspective,and using dynamic panel data model and vector autoregressive model to do a detailed study on the lag effect of state-owned capital of China,and to analyze the impact of state owned capital on industrial output value and non-state-owned capital investment.At the same time this paper will combine empirical results and objective reality and other factors,and try to reveal how to restructure the state-owned capital investment in China,in order to prevent the loss of state-owned assets,increasing the value of state-owned assets,and promote the further development of the national economy.Through empirical research,this paper draws the following four conclusions and recommendations: First,it clearly verifies the lag effect of China's state-owned capital investment and the lag effect of different lag periods;Second,distinguish the different effects of the lagged effect of the state-owned capital investment and the non-state-owned capital investment,and put forward the scope of the investment of them;Third,identify the lag effect of the state capital investment in different industries and the difference of investment strategy;Finally,we should not only have the determination,confidence and patience in the investment of state-owned capital.