A Study On The Relationship Between The Disclosure Strategy Of Corporate Earnings Forecast And The Earnings Forecast Performance Of Analysts

Management and securities analysts of listed companies,as the important participants in China's securities market,are under the guidance of system regulations and market demands,and bear the responsibility of receiving,interpreting,processing and releasing enterprise performance information to investors.Before the announcement of performance,small and medium investors usually make the investment decision based on the Earnings forecast result of securities analysts.At this time,the analyst's prediction will guide and represent the market expectation,and externally affect the management's choice of the performance prediction strategy.Performance prediction is a response to the market by the listed company,,will help analysts to amend the previous forecast and adjust the investor expectations.The interaction between the analysts and the management has finally caused the market expectationsadjusting to the actual level of corporate earnings,securities prices adjusting to the value of its return rapidly.In this paper,we analyze the interaction betweendisclosure strategy of companies earning forecast and earnings forecastperformance of securities analysts,selecting the listed companiesof China A-share main board and SME&GE Boardin 2009-2014,using Logistic regression,multiple linear regression,Wilcoxon symbol rank test and other tools for empirical analysis,the results are as follows:First,the more the number of analysts tracking,the higher forecasting error,the more pessimistic forecast attitude of the listed companies,management would like to disclose future earning information more strongly,and the accuracy and reliability of the information will be higher;the relationship is stronger in small and medium-sized board.Second,the performance prediction has improved the accuracy of analysts predict and reduce the degree of analysts divergence;compared to the mainboard,this effect is more obvious in the SME&GE Board.The interactive relationship between performance forecast and analysts' earnings forecast promotes the efficiency of securities market,but its effect depends on the degree of market regulation.