Empirical Study On Board Secretaries' Characteristics And Accuracy Of Analysts' Earnings Forecast

From 2005 to 2017,the regulators have revised and improved the system of board secretary in China.The main content is to ensure that board secretaries play their due role in information disclosure.The secretaries as important information publishers in the capital market and the securities analyst as main information users,the two are closely linked through the information of listed companies.The impact of secretaries on the quality of information disclosure is likely to be transmitted to the analysts' predictive behavior.At the same time,from the punishment information of supervisors in recent years,the lack of duty of diligence and loyalty is a common problem in the work of board secretaries.According to the high-level echelon theory,the characteristics of board secretaries are likely to indicate whether they will actively fulfill their duty of diligence and loyalty,which will affect the quality of information disclosure of listed companies.Based on this,this paper studies the relationship between the characteristics of the secretaries,the quality of information disclosure and the accuracy of earnings forecast of analysts,and focuses on the mediating effect of information disclosure quality.In order to achieve the purpose of this study,this paper takes the quality of information disclosure as a mediator variable,focusing on the impact of board secretaries' characteristics(shareholding situation,gender and age)on the accuracy of earnings prediction of analysts on the basis of the theory of high-level echelon,principal-agent,moral hazard and information asymmetry.At the same time,this paper also introduces the mediating effect test model proposed by Wen Zhonglin(2005)to explore the mediating effect of information disclosure quality between the two.Through empirical analysis,this paper finds that: 1.The improvement of information disclosure quality promotes the accuracy of earnings forecast of analysts;2.The secretaries who hold the shares,female secretaries and senior secretaries are more conducive to improving the quality of information disclosure of listed companies and the accuracy of earnings forecast of analysts;3.The secretaries who hold the shares,female secretaries and senior secretaries can further improve the accuracy of earnings forecast by improving the quality of information disclosure,that is,the quality of information disclosure plays a part of mediating role in the above three situations.On the basis of previous research results,the possible innovations of this paper are as follows: 1.Extending the research between the characteristics of the secretaries and the quality of information disclosure to the accuracy of earnings forecast of analysts,expanding the thinking of secretaries related research.2.Starting with the shareholding situation,gender and age,this paper enriches the content of relevant research on the characteristics of board secretaries.3.Selecting the evaluation grade of Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the measurement index of the quality of information disclosure,it expands the index construction system.At the same time,due to the limited time and ability,this paper also has some shortcomings: 1.No more research on the characteristics of secretaries;2.The sample period is 2013-2017,the lack of the latest data in 2018 makes the timeliness of this paper not strong enough.This study not only proves the market value of laws and regulations such as company law and listing guidelines for the improvement of the secretariat system in China,but also broadens the horizon for analysts to carry out research and investigation of listed companies and obtain public information in the future��They should not only pay attention to all kinds of information published by the secretaries,but also pay attention to the impact of the secretaries' characteristics on the quality of information.In addition,I hope that the research ideas of this paper can provide a feasible reference for the regulators in formulating the qualifications of the secretary,provide a suitable measurement standard for the listed companies to employ the secretary,and open up a new perspective for follow-up research.