Risk Management Research For Agriculture Production Companies

As economic develops in china,traditional agriculture has fall for behind than the process of social development,modernization in agriculture could not be avoided.There has been some research about agriculture modernization in our country,contract agriculture is a good example.However,contract agriculture has to face internal risk,the price of agriculture production may change frequently,thus enterprise that took part in might be influenced both in expected income and producing arrangement.What price-changing also leads to is the redistribution of interest in contract agriculture model.These could further cause credit risk in additional to interest changing.cobweb model of economics theory has explained the internal reason that caused price changing of agriculture productions theoretically,this means that price changing condition is difficult to be changed.Whether the risk of price changing that effects contract agriculture could be controlled,relates to the healthy development of contract agriculture and the interest of every part that takes part in.In this thesis,I use the idea of risk hedging,which usually be used in financial area,try to explore the effectiveness of hedging model in contract agriculture risk control.Focus on three specific models of the hedging system,explore one by one.The sample data comes from Dalian commodity exchange,Zhengzhou commodity exchange and Wind data basement,I chose a specific production to use three kinds of models making empirical analysis.And then to explore the effectiveness in price changing risk management for contract agriculture.In the empirical analysis part,firstly to establish hedging theory model,define and explain every variable?formula and effectiveness index.Then sample data were applied to the three models for empirical analysis.Based on the empirical results of each model,analysis these results and evaluate the effectiveness of each model.Finally,compare the advantages and disadvantages of the three models,and explain scope of application for these models.Then,conclusion is given.The purpose of this study is to explore the new ideas of contract agriculture risk management,by drawing lessons from other related theories to apply in agricultural risk management,explore its effectiveness in order to provide refe rence for agricultural risk management.