The Impact Of Rising Wages On China's Manufacturing Exports:an Empirical Analysis

In recent years,along with the steady development of Chinese economy,manufacturing wages have risen sharply,and the phenomena of "shortage of migrant workers"appears in coastal areas frequently.Labor is one of the important factors of production,so it is worth exploring how the changes of it's price will affect the export of manufacturing products and what the extent of the affection is.This paper takes the wages and manufacturing exports as research objects,and simply reviews the domestic and foreign scholars' research of this two subjects.On the basis of that,this paper combines the theoretical method with the empirical analysis,and discusses the impact of wages on Chinese manufacturing exports.In theoretical research,it references the Theory of Comparative Advantage,the Stolper-Samuelson Classical Theorem and the Melitz model to interpret the relationship between the rise of wages and the professional division of labor,the price of labor-intensive products and other factors,and the productivity of labor-intensive industry.In the empirical analysis,this paper uses the VAR model and fixed effect model respectively to study the relationship between wages and manufacturing exports,and the influence of industrial wages on the proportion of different factor intensify industry exports.The main results of this paper are as follows:First,in recent years,the wages of Chinese manufacturing industry has been increase obviously,which is higher than some developing countries' now,so the low cost advantage for manufacturing to survive may be lost.However,compared with many developed countries,Chinese manufacturing wages are at a lower level,and still has a rising space.Second,the effect of rising wages on manufacturing exports exists a lag.It has a negative impact on manufacturing exports in the short term,but in the long run,it will not inhibit manufacturing exports,on the contrary,it can promote the expansion of export scale.Third,due to the different wages' level and growth of different industries,their impact on the different factor intensify industries' exports are also not same.The rising of each industrial wages will lead the labor-intensive enterprises with low productivity to exiting the market,and guide the capital and technology to replace the increasingly expensive labor.Therefore,the rise of wages can reverse the adverse situation that the low-end labor-intensive industries are taken as the core of manufacturing,and can force the upgrade of manufacturing industrial structure.Based on the summary of above theoretical research and empirical analysis,this paper puts forward some macroscopic policies for government and microscopic strategies for enterprises to face the rise of wages.