The Research On The Effect Of Shadow Banking Upon China’s Banking Systemic Risk

The global financial crisis in 2008 is rooted in the US derivatives mechanism,and in this process the shadow banking plays an important role.Since then,the government begins to realize that the regulatory measures based on the principle of security and stability is difficult to meet risk management demands.Foreign and domestic academics pay more attention to the shadow banking.According to the latest information,China’s shadow banking has grew rapidly in recent years.Lacking of regulatory makes the risk of shadow banking continues to accumulate.In addition,with the gradual completion of interest rate marketization,the domestic financial market environment becomes more uncertain.As a core industry of China’s financial industry,the Risk Management of Commercial Bank will naturally becomes the focus of discussion.Futhermore,the interest rate marketization reform in china will be finishing up,and the risk of banking maybe will grow.Therefore,under the background of interest rate marketization,studying the influence of shadow banking on the systemic risk of China’s banking has certain significance both in theory and practice.Compared with the previous study,the new ideas of this paper mainly focus on breaking through the theoretical research in the past,measuring the scale of shadow banks and banking systemic risk in proper,using the empirical method to study the relationship between them.The main research context of this paper is as follows:Firstly,this paper summarizes the state of shadow banks and banking systemic risk,and introduces the concept,features and causes of both of them.And it analyzes the five mechanism of shadow banking to banking systemic risk.Secondly,on a basis of comprehensive analysis to the definition and classification,this paper calculating the shadow banking scale,and measuring banking systemic risk between the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2016 by constructing the system of pressure index.Thirdly,based on the above,a multiple regression model is constructed for the banking systemic risk,the size of the shadow banks,the second party of the size of shadow banks,the consumer price index,the one-year loan-deposit spreads and the government deficit.Using cointegration test,causality relationship test,least squares estimate to measures the influence of shadow banking scale on the systemic risk of China’s banking.The results show that there is a U type relationship between them.With the growing of shadow banking scale,China’s banking systemic risk will experience a process of first rise and then drop.At last,the research result of this paper is summarized.According to the state of the domestic shadow banking and the overall situation of the financial market,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on preventing the shadow banking risk and improving the stability of the bank industry.