Research On The Impact Of Shadow Banking On The Systemic Risk Of Commercial Banks

China's shadow banking is a product of financial innovation,and under regulatory arbitrage,the essence of shadow banking is the “class loan” business of commercial banks.The root cause of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis was the US derivatives mechanism,and the US shadow banking boosted the development of the derivatives mechanism.Therefore,the relevant regulatory authorities have begun to understand that the demand for financial market risk management has been increasing,and the regulatory measures for the shadow banking business are gradually improving.In addition,with the deepening of the marketization of domestic economic interest rates,there are many risks in China's financial market environment,and the future economic trend has great uncertainty.In the context of this large environment,research on the impact of shadow banking on bank systemic risk has great theoretical and practical significance.Although many scholars at home and abroad have studied shadow banking in the past,this paper breaks through the original methods and theories after comparing the past literature and methods,and selects the quarterly data of 16 listed commercial banks from 2007 to 2017 as samples.The size and systemic risk of shadow banking were reasonably measured,the scale of shadow banking was calculated reasonably,and the systemic risk was measured by constructing the bank stress index.Finally,the impact of shadow banking on the systemic risk of the bank was empirically analyzed.By constructing a multiple regression model of bank systemic risk,shadow bank size,quadratic scale of shadow banking,net interest margin and fiscal deficit rate,and consumer price index,it has passed unit root test,cointegration test,Granger causality.The test and empirical analysis data test concluded.The analysis shows that the shadow banking business has a “U”-type relationship with the systemic risk of commercial banks.That is to say,the increase of shadow banking business will lead to the decline of the systemic risk of the bank at first and then rise.Finally,based on the empirical results,the relationship between China's shadow banking business and the banking system's systemic risk is summarized,and the threshold is determined to increase supervision.Four countermeasures are proposed for the risk supervision of shadow banking.Although the current development of shadow banking has not caused great harm and impact on systemic risks,the possibility of causing a comprehensive systemic risk crisis is very small.However,due to the stability of the entire financial system in China,the supervisory authority should weigh the pros and cons,increase vigilance,and tighten the supervision of the shadow banking business to ensure the healthy development of China's financial system.