The Influence Of House Price Fluctuation On Chinese Residents' Consumption

In 1998,China's housing system reform,into a period of rising house prices,the real estate market is looking for investment channels,has been found and gradually become urban residents in our country of household wealth in the important part of and in the proportion of household wealth of the gradual growth trend.Therefore,when the real estate is an important part of family wealth,and the level of household wealth is one of the main factors influencing the household consumption level,therefore,our country real estate price fluctuations will to a large impact on residents' consumption level in China.Due to the strongly encourages countries,rapid development of real estate industry occupies more and more important position in national economy,has had gradually become a major economic pillar industry in our country.So in order to gradually get rid of the current our country economy by external demand,investment,into a more focused on domestic consumption demand of economic model,figuring out the consumption level of residents in our country real estate price fluctuations and internal relation becomes more and more important.This paper selected the innovation in different income groups consumption level being affected by the fluctuation of the prices for the starting point and the research train of thought.First USES theory to analyze the inner connection of house price fluctuations and consumer spending,and analyzes the real estate price fluctuations affect residents' consumption this transmission mechanism;And then using the quarterly data of 2002 to 2015 in China as a support for demonstration,test the different income groups affected by fluctuations in the price of real estate,consumer spending and draw conclusions;Finally,in combination with the practical situation of our country and conclusion,for our country real estate market regulation policy provides some policy Suggestions.The empirical part,according to the different income groups in our country from 2002 to 2015 of consumer spending,the per capita disposable income,commercial housing sales price,stock price index data,has carried on the unit root test,cointegration test,granger causality test,VAR model is established and the individual fixed effect model to analyze our country real estate price fluctuations on the influence of different income groups consumption level.In this paper,the empirical results show that in the various factors that affect consumer spending,the disposable income of the factor is still the main;House prices rising too fast for low-income groups had little influence upon consumer spending;Housing prices from rising too fast suppresses the middle-income groups and high income groups consumption expenditure,real estate wealth effect overall performance for the negative effects,namely real estate prices led to property appreciation does not promote the residents' consumption,it has obvious on the residents' consumption "crowding out".In this study analyzed the reasons,and puts forward relevant policy Suggestions.