| In recent years,due to the slowdown of economic growth and industrial restructuring is far behind expectation,the problem of excess capacity in domestic manufacturing enterprises is far from optimistic.Indirect financing plays a leading role in China's social financing system,and the operation status of the relevant industries shows a great impact on the risk-taking level of commercial banks.In 2016,the State Council and the people's Bank of China have issued guidance successively.As long as systematic financial risk is prevent from happening,accelerate the settlement of excess capacity in related industries and compress the debt to assets ratio in the excess capacity industries will carry on.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between the debts of excess capacity industries and the risk-taking of commercial banks.Firstly,a systematic research to the risk-taking of commercial banks and the industrial excess capacity is carried,and then I use the data envelopment analysis method to calculate the utilization rate of the 25 domestic manufacturing industries,in order to identify the excess capacity industries.Secondly,I calculate the debt default rate of the sample industries as the proxy variable of commercial bank risk-taking using the KMV model,then a regression analysis is carried out using Tobit model.The analysis results show that the excess capacity in related industries will raise the debt default rate of related industries,together with the risk-taking level of commercial banks.In order to further improve the risk-taking mechanism of commercial banks,the following suggestions are put forward: Firstly,strengthen the compulsion of information disclosure and improve the transparency of enterprises and commercial banks.Secondly,improve the risk identification ability of commercial banks and build up the risk early warning mechanism.Thirdly,further improve the operation mode and corporate governance structure of commercial banks. |
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