Research On The Customer Churn Risk Warning And Response Strategy Of Electric Power Grid Companies

With the deepening of the power system reform,the new electric policies are promulgated successively.Monopoly of the electric power enterprise is gradually being broken.New type of electric power market is formedgradually.New electric policies will introduce new competition main bodyin the market.New electric policies for power grid company mainly has two aspects pressure.The pressure of high quality electric power customers is churning and new sell electricity company bring pressure of competition.Within the scope of the policy allowing,numerous electricity companies has flocked to join electricity market competition.Sell electricity company's core competitiveness will determine its status and influence in the industry.Based on the new electric background,the paper has discussed that grid companies may face the risk of customer churn.First,this paper expounds the warning management theory of customer loss risk.It clears the definition of customer churn and customer life cycle theory.The theory of risk management is introduced.The model of customer churn warning is also built.Second,It analysis the grid electricity customer related data in a given area.In-depth study of the variables is closely related to customer electricity.The appropriate customer churn warning model is choose.According to the actual related data model is established by using logistic regression.Again,The index system and warning model of customer churn has carried on the empirical analysis by using the relevant data.Empirical analysis result is given and the predicted results were compared with the real results.And the empirical analysis results were evaluated.The index system and model is reasonable and scientific and have certain reference significance to predict customer churn.Finally,the paper puts forward that the power grid companies can adopt three strategies facing customer churnincluding the service strategy of big customer,the management strategy of power grid company's own internal,the improve of external customer loyalty.