Risk Identification And Countermeasures Of PPP Project In The Decision-Making Stage

PPP model has been widely used in infrastructure construction project worldwide in recent years.It is also widespread adopted in seawater desalination project,a sunrise industry,to save the national financial expenditure,meanwhile to make full use of the private capital and mobilize the enthusiasm of private investors.PPP model has extension on space and time,covers a wide range,and needs huge investment.Because of all these interacting factors and complexity,the risk probability is greater than the general engineering project.In particular,the inaccurate risk assessment in the decision-making stage is the major cause of the risk of late stage.Therefore,this paper aims at the study on risk identification and countermeasures in the decision-making stage of the whole life cycle of the PPP project.In this thesis,we introduce the definition of PPP model and its basic form as well as operation mode in the practical application,summarize the main contents of PPP project in decision-making stage,and outline the relevant theory of risk identification and countermeasures.On the basis of theoretical study,the empirical study is conducted on the seawater desalination project of D country.Based on the expert investigation and interview method,the project risk in the decision-making stage includes policy risk,technical risk,financial risk and legal risk.According to the survey results,the risk factors of decision-making stage are identified and analyzed.Policy risks include concession agreement,politics,credit as well as examination and approval;technical risks include environmental protection standards,power and energy supply as well as seawater quality;financial risks include financing,economy and foreign exchange;legal risk include laws and regulation as well as judicial arbitration.Using expert evaluating method to evaluate the risk factors,we can see that the concession agreement,the power and energy as well as environmental protection standards are high risk factors;using sensitivity analysis method,we can determine quantity of water and product price as sensitivity factors;using break-even method,we can evaluate economic feasibility.Finally,we respectively take the necessary countermeasures to four kinds of risk,in order to ensure the successful operation of the project.The combination of theory and practice in this thesis,provides reference for more PPP projects,especially for seawater desalination projects of PPP model in risk identification and countermeasures in the decision-making stage.