The Study Of Fitting Relationship Between The Futures Price And Spot Price Of China's Soybean

The soybean market is an important part of Chinese grain market and the development of soybean market is directly related to the development of grain market.Along with the development of our country's economy,the demand of soybean has shown a trend of rising year by year and domestic soybean supply can't meet the needs of domestic development.Besides,the soybean planting area in our country is shrinking year and year and the soybean production is also declining.So more and more foreign soybeans are imported to our country and China has been the country with the largest soybean imports.The domestic soybean prices are more and more influenced by international soybean market.The domestic soybean futures market and spot market are facing increasingly serious test.As the soybean futures market and spot market are important parts of soybean market,this paper is based on the soybean futures price and spot price as the research object.Through a large number of domestic and foreign literature reading,this paper defines these concepts of futures price,spot price and fitting relationship between futures price and spot price.The fitting relationship is the linkage of soybean futures price and spot price.On this basis,by collecting,calculating,processing related dates from Dalian Commodity Exchange and the National Grain and Oils Information center,this article obtains the dates of soybean futures price and spot priced from 2007 to 2105.Through the analysis of soybean futures price and spot price trend,the two prices appeared rapidly rising and declining significantly at the same time.In the wake of the financial crisis recovery,the two prices showed a slow upward trend for a long time.However,the fluctuation and trend of the two prices showed a synchronous changes at the early stage of recovery and the soybean futures price's leading role hadn't been reflected.Meanwhile the soybeans futures price level was different from the spot price and was always higher than the spot price.This reflected that the soybeans market had certain arbitrage space,but speculative excess could affect the efficiency of the futures discovery function.In turn,this article analyzes the influencing factors of the fitting relationship of soybean futures price and spot price from five aspects including the supply and demand of soybean market,information transfer,the manipulation,the degree of psychological expectations.This chapter not only analyzes the cause in-depth of previous chapter,but also lays foundation for empirical analysis of next chapter.In the empirical study,given the fitting of soybean futures price and spot price reflects the correlation of the two prices,this paper study from four aspects including relevant relations,the equilibrium relationship,leading relationship,dynamic effects,Within the price range,this study gets the conclusion that it exists stronger fitting relationship between the two prices,but the short-term fitting relationship between the two prices is poor and the discovery function of the soybean futures price remains to be further perfected.Combining with the trend of the two prices and the influence factors of the two prices' fitting relationship,the reasons of the empirical conclusion includes not perfection of soybean futures market's information collection mechanism,backward soybean centering on soybean spot market,soybeans producers' lower participation of soybean future market.Countermeasures are put forward to improve the correlation of soybeans futures price and spot price,promote smooth health running of the soybean futures market and spot market and promote the domestic soybeans market to develop better and better.