The Measurement And Factor Analysis Of The Difference In Local Fiscal Capacity

Local governments are the providers of public service and local finance is the capital source for governments to provide public service,For the reason that our country established the system of fiscal decentralization,the pattern of local financial revenue and expenditure are changing,and the local fiscal capacity varies in a large range.It affects the local public activities as well as influence the coordinated development and livelihood issues of regions.With the disappear of household registration system,the degree of urbanization and citizenization are improving.It increases the migration of population scale between provinces.In order to study the fiscal capacity of 31 provinces,this thesis firstly forecasts the probability of migration of population and actual population by using Markov Chain.Then this thesis calculates the cost of local expenditure.Bying considering the nature factors,economic factors,social factors and using entropy weights method to get the coefficient of fiscal cost.Besides,this thesis get the adjustment coefficient by considering the effect of population size.Both coefficient revise the demand of standard fiscal expenditure.Measuring and comparing fiscal capacity of local government after calculating standard fiscal revenue under the transfer payment.Finally,this thesis analyzes the factors that influence the fiscal capacity and its spatial effect by establishing spatial panel model.The results show that natural factors are the key one in all factors of fiscal cost.The fiscal capacity of local governments are polarized and its differences become more stable.The whole level of fiscal capacity is generally low.The places that located in the south of China and the underdeveloped places have greater fiscal gap.Migration of population,transfer payment,the level of urbanization and the power of consumption are the factors that influence the fiscal capacity and it has positive spatial effect called neighborhood effect.It makes it possible to improve the ability of local government to provide public service and sharing level together.