Estimate Of Resident Actual Final Consumption And Its Effects On The Economy

In the troika of the economic growth,the consumer demand is very important.Researching on consumer demand far-reaching.Noteworthly,the contribution of high growth had been mainly investment and net exports,since the reform and opening up.The consumer demand is serious shortage.In addition,our current accounting system does not have actual final consumption statistics,which makes the consumption not compare with the international countries.To solve the above problems,firstly the article measure out actual final consumption.Based on the definition of actual final consumption,separating from expenditure,we can inferred the social transfers in kind and the actual final consumption.Next,we analyze the trends and structures.Concluded:after adding the social transfer in kind,the consumption level is still lower than the developed countries,such as the United States,South Korea and even lower than the Indian.After adding the governmental factors,Chinese engel coefficient has less the 30 percent.Our country has reached affluent stage.Then we analyze the relationship between social transfer in kind and cosumption.The article analyzes from two angles.On one hand,from national point of view,the article uses the data of urban and rural consumption and social transfer in kind from 2003 to 2014.The article using linear regression model finds the relationship.Concluded:in terms of the total amout,we find the social transfers in kind intrude the rural resident consumption,but the effect is not significant for urban residents.In terms of structure,the education,culture and social protection intrude the household consumption,but the medical expenses extrude the household consumption for the rural consumers.The education and the medical expenses extrude the consumption for the urban consumers.On the other hand,using the spatial panel data of 31 provinces from 2007 to2014,we can conclude urban and rural consumption exist obvious spatial positive correlation,spatial lag effect and error effect.Finally,based on the empirical results of the article,our government should enhance the per capita disposable income,optimizate the structure of the fiscal expenditure,improve public services and focus on the development of regional synergy.We should achieve the purpose of improving the resident consumption.