Research On The Net Infection Effect Of “One Belt, One Road” National Financial Market Risk

With the continuous development of economic globalization and financial liberalization,under the background of “One Belt and One Road”strategy,information asymmetry,limited rationality of investors,financial system vulnerability,complexity of risk spillover and nonliterary,the risk of the susceptibility,contagious and destructive become increasingly evident,as an external source of risk in 2008 the US sublime mortgage crisis,although since the outbreak has been separated by eight years,but the current round of financial crisis,"along the way" national economy the negative impact is still far-reaching and widespread.Pure transmission is one of the important mechanisms of financial market risk spillover,and financial markets and trade channels together to spill a country's financial market risk to other countries.Based on the net-infecting angle,from the group behavior and micro-mechanism,the paper analyzes the financial market risk It is of great practical significance and policy for China to formulate reasonable macroeconomic policies and political and economic structural reforms,which is helpful for countries to prevent and block the spread of financial risks.In empirical analysis,using GARCH model of GED distribution to estimate the VaR of extreme risk source countries and use Granger causality,impulse response function to prove the existence of financial market Extreme Risk Spillover between extreme risk source countries and the BRIC countries.On this basis,this paper constructs a spatial model which based on two kinds of spatial weight matrix to test the shock of the pure contagion of the risk sources to “One Belt and One Road” countries and among the “One Belt and One Road” countries.The empirical results show that there is the obvious pure contagion caused by spatial distance and system similarity between developed countries and “One Belt and One Road” countries in every stage.In the pure contagion test between the “One Belt and One Road” countries,the first stage exhibits only pure contagion caused by geographic relationship.There is purecontagion caused by spatial relations and economic system similarity between“One Belt and One Road” countries in the third stage.Pure contagion based on these factors does not exist in fourth stage.The empirical results show that the national macroeconomic(effects of monsoon),financial trade(spillover effects)are the way of financial risk contagion in the four stages;pure investment confidence sub factors in the third stage of contagion effects showed a statistically significant,suggesting that the risk after the incubation period,local outbreak period of brewing,people fear began to spread and spread,it contributed to the financial risk in all the way "area" transmission between nations;Net expectations of contagion effect factors,namely based on economy,political system similarity space weight matrix of the spatial regression coefficient W_frp significantly in four stages,and the coefficient increases gradually,this suggests that the similarity between countries economic,political system is an important factor of net financial risk contagion,and with greater impact of the financial risk,financial risk contagion effects have obvious increase trend.