Supply Side Structural Reform Strategy Focus Credit Risk Evolution Characteristics And Countermeasures

Government-led Four Trillion Economic Stimulus Plan drives credit into a period of rapid and sustained growth.At the same time,the economy is also rapidly developed.And after entering into the "new normal",the economic development has a steady long-term growth trend.But because of a series of structural contradictions,such as rising production costs,the drop of capital limit productivity,misplacement of the product supply and demand,as well as poor market mechanism and other prominent structural problems,pressure of economic downturn frustrates people,and the dangers of various potential risks can not be underestimated.To this end,three to a drop of a supply side of the structural reform,by General Secretary Xi Jinping highlighted the supply-side reforms in the Central Leading Group Meeting on Finance and Economic Affairs.In the past few years,credit has focused on the "high-productivity" and "high-inventory" industries like the manufacturing and real estate sectors.To avoid disadvantages,the expansion of credit is concentrated in the coastal cities,in the industry and areas with excess capacity,high inventory and high leverage ratio,which in essence is the problem of supply side.The possible systemic,cumulative,and devastating effects of excessive concentration of credit on the economy can not be ignored.This paper begins with the general definition of credit risk,introduces the theory of credit concentration,and expounds the general measurement method of credit concentration.By collecting and collating the data of 11 listed banks among China's representative state-owned commercial banks,joint-stock commercial banks and urban commercial banks,we have found that credit concentration is mainly concentrated in credit customers,credit industry,credit concentration and so on.In view of the structural reform of the supply side was put forward in the end of 2015,the deadline of current queryable credit data is mostly the end of 2015.Thus,on the basis of the impact on macroeconomic operations of the supply-side reform,this paper forecasts and estimates the credit concentration after 2015: credit concentration shifts from the manufacturing industry,real estate industry to factor-driven,intensive industries.Concerned about the financial crisis in recent years,such as the financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis,we can see the devastating impact of credit concentration on the macroeconomic.As the credit relates to all walks of life,new requirements for co-ordinated regulation on the risks of credit concentration come up.Therefore,we can strengthen co-supervision of the banking,securities industry,insurance and the central bank and the CBRC and other departments to prevent and defuse the credit concentration risk.By improving the financial environment to enhance the enthusiasm of bank credit,re-positioning the value of credit centralized management objectives,changing the concept of commercial banks and establishing a risk warning line,sustained and stable operation of the economy will be guaranteed.