Research On Scale Estimates And Influence Factors Of Cross-border Capital Flows In China

Since the Chinese Central Bank implemented the Exchange Rate reform——Based on the market supply and demand,with reference to a basket of currencies,a managed floating exchange rate system——in July 21 st,2005,the RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to the single dollar,thus forming the richer elastic RMB exchange rate mechanism.However,along with the exchange rate reform,the Chinese cross-border international capital flows present a new tendency,emerging a double-direction fluctuation,easier to change trend and be in a lager scale.This tendency has a enormous influence on our country's economic development and financial stability,especially since the formation of RMB central parity price mechanism reform made by the central bank in Aug 11 st,2015.Our country's foreign exchange reserve reducing on a large scale,the international capital flows out.In that case the scholar have a hotting discussion aimed at exchange rate fluctuation,the change of foreign exchange reserves,international capital flows out and capital account convertibility.Based on this thoughtfulness,it is necessity to analyze the net scale of international capital flows and its economic effect factors in China.This article has a systematical research on the scale,motivation and and economic effects of international capital flows.Firstly,combined with the present situation,this article analyze the background of this topic,and make a simple conclusion on the former research,then put forward the purpose and innovation of this paper;Secondly,make a comprehensive overviews of different estimation methods of the international capital flows scale and the inner logical of different methods,and then use one of these methods to estimate the scales of Chinese international capital flows from Jan 2000 to Dec 2016.Thirdly,starting from a empirical perspective,use ordinary least squares and VAR model to analyze the effect factors of international capital flows both in static and dynamic angle;In additional,base on the data level,make a judgment about the facts and reasons that the influence of Aug11.2015 RMB exchange rate reform on international cross-border capital flows in our country.Finally,Summarize the main content of this article,make a estimation and judgment of the scales and change trend of Chinese international cross-bordercapital flows,and then addressed several suggestions for the currently situation.The results show that,the influence factor of Chinese international capital flows is complicated,different period present a different characteristics.Among all factors,the RMB exchange rate,interest rate,real estate boom index and the openness index of economic playing a significant role.The stock price index fluctuation present a reverse relations with the international cross-border capital flows.In additional,the influence factor of international capital flows both from internal and external.Chinese economic downward pressure,increased of capital account openness,lead to domestic residents increase the investment in offshore;The revive of the U.S.Economy stimulate the domestic foreign capital and domestic capital outflows;Moreover,after the exchange rate reform in August 11 st,2015,RMB exchange rate run into a deeply depreciation,this lead to a international capital flows out,especially the Central Bank foreign exchange market operations,directly led to the international capital flow out which based on foreign reserves.