Scale Estimates And Influencing Factors Of Our Short-term Cross-border Capital Flows

Developed countries first began to relax restrictions on international capital flowsfrom80years of the20th century. Developing countries had begun to gradually relaxrestrictions on international capital flows when developed countries to further promote theliberalization of international capital flows from90years of the20th century. The mainfeatures of the short-term cross-border capital flows are highly liquid, highly speculativeand highly virtualized. It has a significant impact on capital flows into the country’s interestrates, exchange rates and monetary policy. Now more and more international capital entersthe Chinese market. Especially short-term cross-border capital, sought a safe haven duringthe financial crisis, and value-added. Appreciation of RMB over the past few years theexpected growing, short-term cross-border capital from around the world began to frequentand out of the customs territory. A large number of short-term cross-border capital inflowswill cause excess liquidity in the Chinese market, and further increase the pressure of RMBappreciation. Large outflow of short-term cross-border capital form the impact of China’sinternational reserves, endangering the economic fundamentals. China has yet to releasethe control of capital projects, a large number of short-term cross-border capitals hidden inand out of the customs territory under the current account. Therefore, it is necessary toexplore the influencing factors on China’s short-term cross-border capital flows, and themain factors for the corresponding regulatory proposals.First, the article provides an overview of the definition and classification of short-termcross-border capital, reflected from the BOP dominant channels and sheet recessivechannels a detailed description of the short-term cross-border capital flow path and out ofthe customs territory. Then summarize the estimates on the size of the hidden short-termcross-border capital flows. Select for this article, to calculate the third quarter of2003tothe third quarter of2012net inflows of short-term cross-border capital. Then describe thedriving factors of our short-term cross-border capital flows. Then do ADF stationary test, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis by Eviews5.0software. Finally, thispaper put forward countermeasures and suggestions by strengthen the monitoring ofshort-term cross-border capital flows, the establishment of financial risk indicators toevaluate the system and the management of short-term cross-border capital flows.