Compare The Impact Of Changes In The Exchange Rate Between The BRIC Countries On Export Trade

In recent years,with the accelerated development of global integration,the world economy has also found a big change.Among them,the emerging developing countries which has the aim of economic transformation are particularly prominent.And the BRICs as the representatives of developing countries,the foreign trade of these four countries has developed very rapidly in recent years.Especially after the financial crisis,the growth of the BRIC countries is still strong,which is an important engine of the world economic recovery.So here,I select the BRICs as an example.Their foreign trade surplus has expanded over the past few years,and the economy has grown rapidly.But there is less related literature,about the influence of the exchange rate for the trade surplus.From this point of view,the purpose is all to provide assistance for the relevant national policies.This essay mainly researches BRIC countries,by comparing the results of linear model and nonlinear model,we can explain the influence of exchange rate change on export trade.In the linear regression results,the exchange rates of the four countries are negatively correlated with the export value;From the perspective of exchange rate volatility,China’s exchange rate volatility has nothing to do with exports,Brazil’s export and exchange rate volatility is related significantly at the 5% level,both India and Russia are positively related to the significant level of 1%.For the income level,the income levels of the four countries are significantly related to their export values.In the threshold regression model,in addition to the exchange rate fluctuations between 3.71 and 4.14,the exchange rate is positively related to export value,but at other times there is a significant negative correlation with exports in Brazil.The exchange rate between China and Russia’s domestic currency against the dollar is negatively related to the export value.From exchange rate fluctuations,only Brazil’s exchange rate fluctuates only when the exchange rate is positively related to exports.With exports is negatively related to exchange rate volatility and export China and Russia have no significant correlation.Last,Brazil’s income level is positively related to exports when the fluctuation of exchange rate is small,but negatively correlated with exports when the exchange rate fluctuates;The income levels of China and Russia are positively related to export value.The reason for these results may lie in the difference in the structure of each country’s exports and the difference in its own exchange rate systemFrom the empirical results of this essay,we can see the future development of China,and at present,China is still export-oriented economic development.Exchange rate fluctuations have a certain impact on the country’s economic development.When the exchange rate fluctuates,the risk averse firms will reduce production,So the government should try its best to maintain the stability of the RMB.However,the stability of China’s currency in the international market,which still depends on the profitability and viability of the domestic enterprises.Chinese enterprises should always keep their risk awareness,and need to be vigilant about abnormal exchange rate fluctuations.The monetary authorities should actively promote the process of internationalization of the RMB,In this way,it will also reduce the uncertainty in the country’s export trade due to changes in exchange rates.So that the export oriented economic growth mode will be transformed into an expanding domestic demand oriented economic growth mode.